Until a few years ago, NFL players who struggled with severe
depression, bouts of rage and memory loss in their retirement were often
told they were just having a hard time adjusting to life away from the
game. Doctors have since learned these changes can be symptoms of the
degenerative brain disease CTE -- chronic traumatic encephalopathy,
caused by blows to the head. What we're learning now is that CTE
isn't just affecting athletes, but also showing up in our nation's
heroes. Since 9/11 over 300,000 soldiers have returned home with brain
injuries. Researchers fear the impact of CTE could cripple a generation
of warriors. When Joy Kieffer buried her 34-year old son this past summer, it was the end of a long goodbye. Kieffer's
son, Sgt. Kevin Ash, enlisted in the Army Reserves at the age of 18.
Over three deployments, he was exposed to 12 combat blasts, many of them
roadside bombs. He returned home in 2012 a different man. Joy Kieffer: His whole personality had changed. I thought it was
exposure to all of the things that he had seen, and he had just become
harder. You know, but he was -- he was not happy. Sharyn Alfonsi:
So at this point, you're thinking this decline, this change in my child
is just that he's been in war and he's seen too much. Joy Kieffer: Right. Sharyn Alfonsi: Did he tell you about blasts that he experienced during that time? Joy Kieffer: Uh-huh. Sharyn Alfonsi: What did he--tell you? Joy Kieffer: That they shook him. And he was having blackouts. And -- it frightened him. Ash
withdrew from family and friends. He was angry. Depressed. Doctors
prescribed therapy and medication, but his health began to decline
quickly. By his 34th birthday, Sgt. Kevin Ash was unable to speak, walk
or eat on his own. Sharyn Alfonsi: Looking back on it now, was there anything you feel like he could've done? Joy Kieffer: Uh-uh. Sharyn Alfonsi: Because? Joy
Kieffer: Because it was-- it-- it was his brain. The thing I didn't
know was that his brain was continuing to die. I mean, before he went
into the service he said, "you know, I could come back with no legs, or
no arms, or even blind, or I could be shot, I could die," but nobody
ever said that he could lose his mind one day at a time. His final wish was to serve his country one last time by donating his brain to science -- a gesture he thought would bring better understanding to the invisible wounds of war. Joy reached out to the VA-Boston University-Concussion Legacy Foundation Brain Bank where neuropathologist Dr. Ann McKee is leading the charge in researching head trauma and the degenerative brain disease CTE. McKee
has spent fourteen years looking at the postmortem brains of hundreds
of athletes who suffered concussions while playing their sport. This past summer, her findings shook the football world when she
discovered CTE in the brains of 110 out of 111 deceased NFL players --
raising serious concerns for those in the game today. And when Dr.
McKee autopsied Patriots tight-end Aaron Hernandez who killed himself
after being convicted of murder, she found the most severe case of CTE
ever, in someone under 30. Now she's seeing a similar pattern in
deceased veterans who experienced a different kind of head trauma --
combat blasts. Of the 102 veterans' brains Dr. Mckee's examined, 66 had
CTE. Sharyn Alfonsi: I can understand a football player who keeps,
you know, hitting his head, and having impact and concussions. But how
is it that a combat veteran, who maybe just experienced a blast, has the
same type of injury? Dr. Ann McKee: This blast injury causes a
tremendous sort of-- ricochet or-- or-- a whiplash injury to the brain
inside the skull and that's what gives rise to the same changes that we
see in football players, as in military veterans.
"This is a
disease and a problem that we're going to be dealing with for decades.
And it's a huge public health problem. It's a huge problem for the
Veterans Administration. It's a huge moral responsibility for all of
us."
Blast trauma was first recognized back in World War I. Known
as 'shell shock,' poorly protected soldiers often died immediately or
went on to suffer physical and psychological symptoms. Today,
sophisticated armor allows more soldiers to walk away from an explosion
but exposure can still damage the brain -- an injury that can worsen
over time. Dr. Ann McKee: It's not a new injury. But what's been
really stumping us, I think, as-- as physicians is it's not easily
detectable, right? It's-- you've got a lot of psychiatric symptoms-- and
you can't see it very well on images of the brain and so it didn't
occur to us. And I think that's been the gap, really, that this has been
what everyone calls an invisible injury. Dr. Ann McKee: This is the world's largest CTE brain bank. The only foolproof way to diagnose CTE is by testing a post-mortem brain. Sharyn Alfonsi: So these are full of hundreds of brains... Dr. Ann McKee: Hundreds of brains, thousands really... Researchers
carefully dissect sections of the brain where they look for changes in
the folds of the frontal lobes - an area responsible for memory,
judgement, emotions, impulse control and personality.Dr. Ann McKee: Do you see there's a tiny little hole there? That is an abnormality. And it's a clear abnormality. Sharyn Alfonsi: And what would that affect? Dr.
Ann McKee: Well, it's part of the memory circuit. You can see that
clear hole there that shouldn't be there. It's connecting the important
memory regions of the brain with other regions. So that is a sign of
CTE. Thin slivers of the affected areas are then stained and
viewed microscopically. It's in these final stages where a diagnosis
becomes clear as in the case of Sgt. Kevin Ash. Sharyn Alfonsi: So this is Sergeant Ash's brain? Dr.
Ann McKee: Right. This is-- four sections of his brain. And what you
can see is-- these lesions. The, and those lesions are CTE And they're
in very characteristic parts of the brain. They're at the bottom of the
crevice. That's a unique feature of CTE.Sharyn Alfonsi: And in a healthy brain, you wouldn't see any of those kind of brown spots? Dr.
Ann McKee: No, no, it would be completely clear. And then when you look
microscopically, you can see that the tau, which is staining brown and
is inside nerve cells is surrounding these little vessels. Sharyn Alfonsi: And explain, what is the tau? Dr.
Ann McKee: So tau is a protein that's normally in the nerve cell. It
helps with structure and after trauma, it starts clumping up as a toxin
inside the nerve cell. And over time, and even years, gradually that
nerve cell dies. Dr. Lee Goldstein has been building on Dr. McKee's work with testing on mice. Inside
his Boston University lab, Dr. Goldstein built a 27-foot blast tube
where a mouse - and in this demonstration, a model - is exposed to an
explosion equivalent to the IEDs used in Iraq and Afghanistan. Dr. Lee Goldstein: When it reaches about 25 this thing is going to go. Dr.
Goldstein's model shows what's going on inside the brain during a
blast. The brightly colored waves illustrate stress on the soft tissues
of the brain as it ricochets back and forth within the skull. Dr.
Lee Goldstein: What we see after these blast exposures, the animals
actually look fine. Which is shocking to us. So they come out of what is
a near lethal blast exposure, just like our military service men and
women do. And they appear to be fine. But what we know is that that
brain is not the same after that exposure as it was microseconds before.
And if there is a subsequent exposure, that change will be accelerated.
And ultimately, this triggers a neurodegenerative disease. And, in
fact, we can see that really after even one of these exposures. Sharyn
Alfonsi: The Department of Defense estimates hundreds of thousands of
soldiers have experienced a blast like this. What does that tell you? Dr.
Lee Goldstein: This is a disease and a problem that we're going to be
dealing with for decades. And it's a huge public health problem. It's a
huge problem for the Veterans Administration. It's a huge moral
responsibility for all of us. A responsibility owed to soldiers like 33-year-old Sgt. Tom Bates. Sgt. Tom Bates: We were struck with a large IED. It was a total devastation strike.Bates miraculously walked away from a mangled humvee -- one of four
IED blasts he survived during deployments in Iraq and Afghanistan. Sharyn Alfonsi: Do you remember feeling the impact in your body? Sgt. Tom Bates: Yes. Yeah. Sharyn Alfonsi: What does that feel like? Sgt. Tom Bates: Just basically like getting hit by a train. Sharyn Alfonsi: And you were put back on the frontlines. Sgt. Tom Bates: Yes. Sharyn Alfonsi: And that was it? Sgt. Tom Bates: Uh-huh When Bates returned home in 2009, his wife Libby immediately saw a dramatic change.Libby Bates: I thought, "Something is not absolutely right here.
Something's going on. For him to just lay there and to sob and be so
sad. You know, what do you do for that? How do I-- how do I help him?
He would look at me and say, "If it wasn't for you, I would end it all
right now." You know, I mean, like, what do you-- what do you do-- and
what do you say to somebody who says that? You know I love this man so
much. And -- Sharyn Alfonsi: You're going to the VA, you're getting help, but did you feel like you weren't getting answers? Sgt. Tom Bates: Yes. Sharyn Alfonsi: And so you took it into your own hands and started researching? Sgt.
Tom Bates: I knew the way everything had gone and how quick a lot of
my neurological issues had progressed that something was wrong. And I
just-- I wanted answers for it. That led him to New York's Mount Sinai Hospital
where neurologist Dr. Sam Gandy is trying to move beyond diagnosing CTE
only in the dead by using scans that test for the disease in the
living. Dr. Sam Gandy: By having this during life, this now gives
us for the first time the possibility of estimating the true prevalence
of the disease. It's important to estimate prevalence so that people can
have some sense of what the risk is. In the past year, 36 veterans and athletes have been tested for the disease here. Tom Bates asked to be a part of it. That
radioactive tracer - known as t807 - clings to those dead clusters of
protein known as tau, which are typical markers of the disease. Through
the course of a 20 minute PET scan, high resolution images are taken of
the brain and then combined with MRI results to get a 360 degree
picture of whether there are potential signs of CTE. Scan results confirmed what Tom and Libby had long suspected. On
the right, we see a normal brain scan with no signs of CTE next to
Tom's brain where tau deposits, possible markers of CTE, are bright
orange.Dr. Sam Gandy: Here these could be responsible for some of the
anxiety and depression he's suffered and we're concerned it will
progress. Sgt. Tom Bates: My hope is that this study becomes more
prominent, and gets to more veterans, and stuff like that so we can
actually get, like, a reflection of what population might actually have
this. There is no cure for CTE. Dr. Gandy hopes his trial will lead to drug therapies so he can offer some relief to patients like Tom. Dr. Ann McKee believes some people may be at higher risk of getting the disease than others. While
examining NFL star Aaron Hernandez's brain she identified a genetic
bio-marker she believes may have predisposed him to CTE. A discovery that could have far-reaching implications on the football field and battlefield. Sharyn Alfonsi: Do you think you will ever be your old self again? Sgt. Tom Bates: I don't ever see me being my old self again. I think it's just too far gone. Sharyn Alfonsi: So what's your hope then? Sgt. Tom Bates: Just to not become worse than I am now. Produced by Ashley Velie. Associate producer, Dina Zingaro. For families who wish to donate a brain for research please contact the CTE Center/Brain Bank Directly: Bobbie Abdolmohammadi - 617-414-1184 Laney Evers - 617-414-1187 To sign up to pledge to donate your brain to Dr. Ann McKee's research, please visit https://concussionfoundation.org/pledge
Editor's Note: Since this story aired, we have received many
inquiries about how to contact Dr. Daniel Perl and The Center for
Neuroscience and Regenerative Medicine. Here is that information: http://www.researchbraininjury.org or 1-855-366-8824.A new medical discovery has profound implications for wounded warriors.
It's a previously unknown type of brain injury uncovered in veterans
who are exposed to the invisible wave of energy that erupts from high
explosives. The evidence was found in the brains of veterans who died.
And tonight, we have a rare opportunity to introduce you to one of the
vets who made the discovery possible. Retired Army Sergeant First Class
Brian Mancini killed himself in 2017 after descending into psychosis.
But we met Mancini years before, in 2011, after he made a nearly
miraculous recovery from the impact of a roadside bomb in Iraq. There's
no one better to begin this story, than the late Brian Mancini himself.
Brian Mancini in 2011
CBS News
Brian
Mancini: I got hit in the face. I knew pretty early that I had lost my
eye. I didn't know how severe my injuries were, but I knew I was hurt
very bad. We met Brian Mancini six years before his suicide. We
had followed a group of wounded vets back to Iraq on a therapy program,
endorsed by the Pentagon, designed to help them come to terms with the
day they were wounded and leave that day behind. Brian Mancini:
You know, we often hear about guys that carry these heartaches their
whole lives. And it slowly erodes them. I don't want to be that guy, you
know? I want to be able to have a successful life and not burdened with
the demons that I see here. Brian Mancini: I'm glad I'm alive. On that return trip to Iraq, Mancini visited the field hospital that saved him. Brian Mancini: My whole face has been rebuilt. I used to look like Brad Pitt but this is what I got stuck with. Brian
Mancini: I have a titanium mesh plate in my forehead. They rebuilt my
whole orbital socket. My sinuses were replaced or rebuilt. Scott Pelley: How many surgeries did that come to? Brian Mancini: I have no idea. I have no idea.
"Brian would often say, 'I don't know if this is real... or if I dreamt it.'"
Years of surgeries, pain and struggle were witnessed by Brian Mancini's brother and sister, Michael and Nichole. Michael Mancini: Oh, he was a patriot. He loved this country. He loved this country. Nichole
Mancini: He was a natural leader, and I think that the military was a
natural fit for him. And he was good at his job, and he loved it. After his recovery, he created a new job for himself. At home in Phoenix, he founded "Honor House" to provide wounded vets with therapies that helped him—including yoga, acupuncture, and especially fly-fishing. Brian Mancini: He came leaps and bounds. And Brian two years ago was the best Brian I've ever known in my life. But
as he reached his peak in 2015, Mancini suddenly began to suffer
delusions. He imagined the government was spying on him, that members of
the Honor House board were with the CIA. And he thought he was being
tracked with cell phones. Michael Mancini: It was delusional, it was irrational, it was like, a progression. Nichole Mancini: He wouldn't let us have our cell phones around him. Michael Mancini: Very paranoid. Nichole Mancini: His mind had started to almost turn against him. And people that— Scott Pelley: His mind had turned against him? Nichole Mancini: Yeah. Brian would often say, "I don't know if this is real or if I had if I dreamt it." The
Honor House board took control of the charity from Mancini. He had been
depressed before, but not insane. Last year, Mancini donated his life
savings to his church, drove to this remote canal, and shot himself in
the head. The betrayal of his mind had been so sudden, so shocking, that
his family was certain there must be a cause that no one understood. Michael Mancini: And the first initial thought to me was, "I need to find someone who would take my brother's brain tissue for further study and further research."
The Mancini's found neuropathologist Dr. Daniel Perl.
Correspondent Scott Pelley with Dr. Daniel Perl
CBS News
Perl oversees the brain tissue repository at the Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences,
the military medical school in Bethesda, Maryland. Perl also wondered
whether some torments of war might be rooted in an undiscovered kind of
brain injury caused by the supersonic pressure wave of high explosives. Dr.
Daniel Perl: That started in World War I and we had the whole issue of
shell shock. And then in World War II, we had battle fatigue. Then in
Korea, we had PTSD. I mean, these were all expressions of responses to
being in warfare, much of it being exposed to blast. And we knew nothing
about what was going on in the brain. Perl's team sliced brain tissue from eight veterans and examined the tissue under a microscope. Rare for its power. Scott Pelley: That doesn't look like the one I had in high school. Dr. Daniel Perl: No, it's not. Perl
says his microscope is thousands of times more powerful than the best
MRI. And it helped them discover this previously unknown form of brain
injury when Perl compared the brains of the vets to civilians who had
injured their brains in car wrecks. Dr. Daniel Perl: The difference is just so dramatic. Scott Pelley: These on the left are people who suffered-- Dr. Daniel Perl: A single individual's brain who suffered an automobile accident. A single individual who was exposed to blast.Stained identically for scarring. Scott
Pelley: The brown--area is the stain that reveals the scarring and you
don't see it in the person who hit their head in the automobile
accident. Dr. Daniel Perl: That's right. Dr. Daniel Perl:
When an IED goes off there's a tremendous explosion. And with the
explosion comes the formation of something called the blast wave. And it
is sufficiently powerful to pass through the skull and through the
brain. And when it does that-- it does damage the brain tissue. Scott Pelley: Do you have a slide of Brian Mancini's brain? Dr. Daniel Perl: Yes, we do. The
dark brown is scarring, running along lines where two types of brain
tissue meet, the so-called gray matter and white matter. Dr.
Daniel Perl: The locations were areas of the brain that had differing
densities. This was the interface between gray matter and white matter,
between brain and fluid, such as spinal fluid, or brain and blood. Scott Pelley: Why do you see the scarring where the white matter and the gray matter come together? Dr.
Daniel Perl: The white matter have a somewhat higher density than the
gray matter. And that's where the energy of the blast wave is released. Scott Pelley: They bang together. Dr. Daniel Perl: In a sense, yeah. Scott Pelley: Do you see the scarring at these interfaces throughout the entire brain? Dr. Daniel Perl: We're looking at that now, okay? By and large, yes. Evidence of this scarring was found in all of the veterans - none of the civilians. Scott Pelley: Do you believe that you're going to find a connection between this and post-traumatic stress disorder?
Dr.
Daniel Perl: In a sense, we already have. Every case that we've looked
at has been diagnosed with PTSD And what that connection is, the nature
of that connection, whether the scarring in the brain leads one to be
more apt to develop PTSD, or whether there's so much overlap between the
symptoms that one gets with the damage in the brain that it looks like
PTSD, we don't know yet.
Earlier this season we reported
on research by another laboratory into vets who showed evidence of
"CTE" the kind of brain injury found in football players. Dr. Perl says
his team has discovered something distinct from CTE. Dr. Daniel
Perl: Very different, okay? One is a huge blast wave that almost
destroys his face, passes through his brain. It's a one-time thing. OK?
It's not the sorta daily and weekly impact injury that an NFL player
has. The other thing is that our service members are coming home from
deployment symptomatic. By and large, CTE in the football player, for
instance, occurs in their retirement, after they've played. Scott Pelley: Years later? Dr. Daniel Perl: Years later, right. They become symptomatic. So the timing of it seemed to be a very different proposition. Scott Pelley: But it's absolutely clear to you that Brian Mancini did not have CTE? Dr. Daniel Perl: That's right. We looked very carefully for CTE in Brian's brain. And he just did not have it. Scott Pelley: So what you and your colleagues have discovered is something new? Dr. Daniel Perl: Yes. Yes. This is new. This, this has changed thinking about blast exposure and its consequences.
We
were able to add something to Dr. Perl's research that he rarely sees, a
description of the blast that wounded one of his deceased subjects.
Brian
Mancini: Most of my forehead was blasted out, I had a basal skull
fracture along with some fractured vertebrae in my back and some burns
and shrapnel. When I was doing the assessment of my injuries, I remember
laying down and opening my mouth as wide as possible and reaching in
and scraping the debris that had been knocked loose, and the blood, from
my airway so I could breathe. And shortly after that, I lost
consciousness. Dr. Daniel Perl: It's just stunning to see
this it's not something I normally get to experience. I mean that he
survived this injury is just remarkable, much less what happened
afterwards. Now that the discovery is known, Perl hopes research
can begin into improving the lives of those who suffer with this hidden
wound of war. Scott Pelley: What's your theory today on how this damage manifests itself in a living human being? Dr.
Daniel Perl: Well, obviously wherever there is damage, there must be
some loss of function. Persistent headaches. They have problems with
sleep. They have problems concentrating, memory problems swings of mood,
anger management problems. The discovery is a lone fact that
raises many questions; can the scarring ever be seen in a living
patient? How do the scars affect the mind? And what can be done? Scott Pelley: If Brian Mancini had come to you in the last year of his life, would you have been able to do anything for him? Dr.
Daniel Perl: No, I don't think so. I don't think so. We're not there
yet. We have a lotta people now beginning to take it seriously and begin
work on it. It's not just us in our lab. It's really been a game
changer in terms of our approach to this problem. Dr.
Perl is now searching for preserved brains of World War I veterans to
see if the scarring dates to the beginning of widespread use of high
explosives in war. Brian Mancini's life was devoted to wounded
warriors—first as an Army medic, then in rehabilitation. And now, even
in death, his work to heal continues. Scott Pelley: And this is what Brian would've wanted? Michael Mancini: Oh, absolutely. Nichole Mancini: Without a doubt. Scott Pelley: Brian is still serving his country. Michael Mancini: Amen. Brian
Mancini: I wouldn't trade any of these horrendous and horrific
experiences for anything there's a lesson in everything that we endure
in life, And if we can clear all the chaos away and all the heartache
away, we can receive that lesson "Why was I here? What was this for?
Why did this happen?" And kind of get some of those answers. And I think
that helps in healing long-term. Produced by Henry Schuster. Associate Producer, Rachael Morehouse.
This is the oldest lighthouse still in
operation in the world, nearly 2000 years of history, helping sailors looking
for a guide in this troubled area of the Atlantic. The beauty, but also the
usefulness of the venerable lighthouse is a symbol of what was the Roman Empire:
a mix between business and pleasure, built primarily to perform a function that
would serve every citizen. It experienced all the history of the Iberian
Peninsula since the advent of Latin culture in the countries of western Europe.
Source:https://inaciem.com/roman-empire/tower-of-hercules ----------------------------------------------------------------------
西班牙大力神燈塔Tower of Hercules (紅點)以南三十至四十公里則是天主教聖地亞哥德孔波斯特拉 Santiago de Compostela. 維基百科說是相傳耶穌十二門徒之一的大雅各安葬於此，是天主教朝聖勝地之一。自中世紀以來，前來此地的朝聖者絡繹不絕，乃至形成了一條有名的朝聖之路，即聖雅各之路。
聖地亞哥-德孔波斯特拉古城於1985年被列為世界文化遺產。搜索:Santiago de Compostela, botafumeiro (圖片及影片)
朝聖者多天不洗澡, 八名教士齊心協力用滑輪盪千秋似的將香爐(50至160公斤)散播焚香,
有沒有意外? One of the most renowned accidents took
place during a visit of Princess Catherine of Aragon. She was on a journey to
marry the heir to the English throne in 1499 and stopped by the cathedral in
Santiago de Compostela. While it was being swung, the Botafumeiro flew out of
the cathedral through the Platerias high window. No one was reported to have
been injured on this occasion.The ropes and other devices securing the
Botafumeiro have also failed; on May 23, 1622, and more recently in 1925 and
July 1937. In 1622, the Botafumeiro fell at the feet of the tiraboleiros. In
July 1937, the cords holding the Botafumeiro failed again, and hot coals were
spilled onto the floor. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Botafumeiro
Wild, windy and at times desolate, the Costa da Morte,
west of A Coruña, is often passed over by tourists heading south to the beaches
of the Rías Baixas. But while the Costa da Morte lacks both the climate and the
infrastructure for large-scale tourism, it’s not nearly as overdeveloped as the
regions to the south, while boasting similarly beautiful coves, tiny fishing
villages huddled against the headlands, and forested mountain slopes
aplenty.
Its fearsome name, which means Coast of Death, stems
from the constant buffeting the shoreline receives from the Atlantic waves. The
most notorious of the countless shipwrecks that litter the sea bed is the oil
tanker Prestige, which snapped in two following a ferocious storm in 2002.
Although 77,000 tonnes of crude oil were released into the ocean, barely a trace
of oil remained just twelve months later.
The coast from Camariñas to Fisterra is the most exposed
and westerly stretch of all. Ever since a Roman expedition under Lucius Florus
Brutus was brought up short by what seemed to be an endless sea, it has been
known as finis terrae (the end of the world), and it is not hard to see why.
This is prime territory, however, for hunting percebes (barnacles), one of
Galicia’s most popular and expensive seafood delicacies, which have to be
scooped up from the very waterline. Collectors are commonly swept away by the
dreaded “seventh wave”, which can appear out of nowhere from a calm sea. (博主註:
每年五名岸邊挖狗爪螺者被捲入浪裡淹死)
Even where the isolated coves do shelter fine beaches,
you will rarely find resort facilities. While the beaches may look splendid,
braving the water is recommended for only the strongest of swimmers, and the
climate is significantly wetter and windier here than it is a mere 100km or so
further south.
The name of the coastal area of Costa da Morte (“Coast of Death”) refers to its partly rough
and rocky shoreline. In between, the coastline which offers attractive beaches
and areas of high environmental value.
The FLAG (Fisheries Areas Network, EU) has twelve small
harbours which generate crucial employment for their immediate surroundings.
Almost 300 small-scale fishing boats sell their catches at one of the seven
auctions. Daily landings ensure the supply of high quality fish and seafood
products. The canning industry is the only processing activity in the FLAGs
territory.
In general, the area and especially small cities such as
Camarinas, Malpice and Muxia struggle with high unemployment rates due to a lack
of (quality) jobs, leading to a high number of young educated people leaving the
region. This also leads to a decline and aging of the overall
population.
Thanks to the geography of the area, which has many
beaches with fine sand and several protected areas, tourism has emerged as an
alternative to the decline of traditional industries. However, there is no
common approach to fully tap into this opportunity because of a shortage of
knowledge and services within this sector.
Two
of Central Asia's poorest countries, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, are
attempting to leverage one of their few geographic advantages — control
over the headwaters of two major regional rivers — to build new
hydropower dams. The proposed dams, which were originally drawn up by
the Soviet Union in the 1970s and 1980s, offer the prospect of boosting
electricity production both for domestic use and potentially for export
to neighboring states. Financing for the dams has not yet been
secured, though Russia has periodically offered some assistance to each
country. However, if the projects do proceed, the already tense
relations are likely to become even more fraught between Kyrgyzstan and
Tajikistan and their richer downriver neighbors, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan,
which depend on the rivers' waters. While military confrontations are
unlikely in the near term, any developments that jeopardize the
downriver countries' water supply could prompt a harsh response.
Under
the Soviet Union, Central Asia was split into five Soviet republics.
All administrative matters in these republics were decided by Moscow,
including how the individual republics used and distributed their
natural resources. When the Soviet Union dissolved in December 1991, the
former republics (now independent states) kept their Soviet-imposed borders,
even though they were explicitly designed by Moscow to keep any one
state from becoming powerful or independent enough to challenge the
Kremlin's central authority. Consequently, these countries are dependent
on one another for their natural resources and energy needs, which is a
challenge now that each individual country, rather than Moscow, is
responsible for managing those resources.
Resource Competition in Central Asia
Portions
of the Central Asian steppe — especially Uzbekistan — were endowed with
fertile soil and favorable weather patterns, making them well suited
for agriculture, though the arid land requires irrigation. To create
agricultural zones and provide sufficient water for other uses in
Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, the Soviet Union constructed
extensive irrigation networks to redirect water from Central Asia's two
largest rivers, the Syr Darya originating in Tajikistan and the Amu
Darya originating in Kyrgyzstan. Water
diversion measures combined with inefficient infrastructure and general
overuse have caused the rivers' drainage point, the Aral Sea, to lose
about 75 percent of its water volume since the 1960s and become
increasingly saline. This has reduced the sea's ability to provide a
moderating effect on temperatures and has resulted in the
desertification of the surrounding areas. Considering the increasing
demand on and the possible reduction of the rivers' glacial sources, the
already-strained water situation in the region looks set to grow tenser
in the coming years. This is the context under which Kyrgyzstan
and Tajikistan hope to build two new hydropower plants that could
further reduce the water flow to downriver countries. Bishkek and
Dushanbe want the power plants to expand their electrical production
capacity, which could lessen their energy dependence on downstream
countries, especially natural gas from Uzbekistan. These projects could
eventually even allow the countries to export excess energy to China,
Afghanistan and Pakistan if the necessary infrastructure is built, which
would be extremely valuable for the two historically poor countries.
Proposed Hydroelectric Projects
Kyrgyzstan's
proposed Kambarata-1 hydropower plant would be built on the Naryn
River, a tributary of the Syr Darya, while Tajikistan's proposed Rogun
hydropower plant would be built on the Vakhsh River, a tributary of the
Amu Darya. These are two of the largest hydroelectric projects ever
planned in Central Asia, with potential generating capacities of 1,900
megawatts and 3,600 megawatts, respectively. Kambarata-1 and Rogun
were designed by the Soviets to improve water management in Central
Asia. Two significant sources of the region's river water are snowmelt
and glacial thaw, and thus the flow slows in the winter months while
becoming more rapid when temperatures heat up in the summer. Kambarata-1
and Rogun are designed to be able to better control the fluctuation of
water flow by retaining water in reservoirs and releasing it when it is
most needed. But this introduces competing goals for reservoir use:
While the downriver areas need more water in the summer to irrigate
their crops, the upriver regions require more water in the winter to
generate hydroelectricity. Both proposed dam projects have
received external funding to carry out feasibility studies, but the
estimated high costs of the dams make it impossible for Dushanbe and
Bishkek to pay for them on their own. Kambarata-1 will cost an estimated
$2-4 billion, while Rogun is projected at $2-3 billion. Considering
Kyrgystan's gross domestic product was $5.9 billion in 2011 and
Tajikistan's was $6.5 billion, foreign investment will be essential for
the projects. Russia has proposed creating a joint-stock company with
Kyrgyzstan to build Kambarata-1 and also paid for its feasibility study.
But while Kyrgyz President Almaz Atambayev said construction would
begin by spring 2013, the funding needed to begin, much less complete,
the project has yet to materialize.
In
the past, Russia has backed out on promises to fund such projects in
Central Asia. At the end of 2004, Russian aluminum company RUSAL
expressed interest in finishing construction of Tajikistan's Rogun
hydropower plant, which the Soviets had begun in 1976 but never
completed. RUSAL pulled out of the project, ostensibly over
disagreements regarding the design of the dam and how much electricity
should be allocated for residential versus industrial use. The actual
reason for the withdrawal, however, was that Russia did not want to seriously provoke Uzbekistan by building a hydropower plant of such size. Since
then, however, the project has been revived. Projected to become the
world's tallest dam if it is built to Tajikistan's specifications, Rogun
is currently undergoing its second feasibility study, funded by the
World Bank. The Tajik government raised less than $200 million for the
project by forcing citizens to buy shares in it. But the rest of the $2
billion needed to build the project will likely have to come from
foreign investment. Whether the funding for either dam comes from Russia
will likely depend on how far the Kremlin feels it can push Uzbekistan
rather than how interested it is in being a stakeholder in these two
hydroelectric power plants. While neither project will likely be
completed in the near future, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan
have all expressed their concerns about how these new hydropower dams
could affect them. These countries are worried that if the dams are
built, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will hoard water in reservoirs during
the summer months (when the downriver agricultural regions need it most)
so the upriver countries can release it in the winter to generate
hydroelectric power. If the Rogun dam were to be built, it could
affect the Vakhsh River's water flow — but this impact would likely not
be felt for years. Some estimates indicate it could take more than a
decade to fill Rogun's reservoir, during which time the river would
probably only experience an estimated 1-2 percent reduction in its water
flow, with less water lost the slower it is filled. Once the reservoir
is filled, however, downriver countries could expect a worst-case
scenario (where the dam is generating full electricity) of an estimated
18 percent reduction in water flow during the summer months and an
estimated 54 percent increase in water flow in the winter, which could
cause flooding downriver depending on how Tajikistan decides to control
the timing of water release. While dam-related variations in water
flow are unlikely to become an issue in the near future, since the
completion of these projects is many years off, the three downstream
countries have already expressed their hostility to the projects. If the
two hydroelectric power plants come closer to fruition, economic and
political tensions between the upriver and downriver countries would
almost certainly escalate. Uzbekistan in particular is capable of
cutting off natural gas exports to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Military
confrontations, while unlikely, could not be ruled out since a dramatic
decline in water supplies could force the downriver countries to respond
as a matter of national security. This could risk inviting retaliation
from larger powers like Russia, which has extensive economic and
security interests in Central Asia and wants to prevent any of the
countries there, particularly Uzbekistan, from emerging as a regional
hegemon.
Looking Ahead
The likelihood that Kambarata-1 or
Rogun will be built is contingent on each project acquiring the foreign
financing that Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are seeking. If either project
receives the necessary funding, Bishkek and Dushanbe are still years
away from developing a substantial hydropower industry. Still, tensions
in the region over water supplies will likely continue to escalate,
especially if downriver countries perceive a serious and imminent threat
to their water supplies.
Central Asia's Looming Conflict Over Water, Part 2: The Downriver Countries
Even before Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan began their recent push to build hydroelectric dams along Central Asia's two main rivers, downriver countries were coping with water scarcity challenges caused by increased demand and inefficient agricultural practices. Adjusting irrigation techniques in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan could partially mitigate these problems, but political and economic difficulties in these countries — especially the latter two — appear likely to stymie any progress. The persistence of water competition in Central Asia has already increased regional tensions and could eventually escalate to armed conflict if the situation goes unaddressed.
Shared but limited water resources are always potential catalysts for regional disputes, especially if those resources are mismanaged. However, the developing conflict involving the Aral Sea basin is unique due to its relatively recent emergence since the fall of the Soviet Union — an event that left Central Asian countries to resolve such issues on their own without mandates from Moscow for the first time in nearly a century.
Origins of the Scarcity Issue
During the Soviet era, the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya rivers, which feed into the Aral Sea, were tapped for irrigation. The two rivers are sourced largely from snowmelt and glacial thaw in the mountains of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, keeping flows from the rivers' headwaters relatively consistent over the past 50 years. However, large-scale irrigation schemes geared toward cotton production have prevented water from reaching the Aral Sea, causing its volume to decrease by about 75 percent since the 1960s. The future appears even more uncertain. Reliable environmental information about the region is difficult to acquire, since many monitoring stations fell into disrepair after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Still, there appears to be consensus that temperatures in the region are rising slightly, a change that could cause the glaciers to melt at a faster rate than previously recorded and reduce the annual average river flow by 15 percent or more by 2050. While it is impossible to know with any certainty whether the glaciers will retreat as predicted, demand from downstream countries is projected to increase. Agriculture — the sector that consumes the most water — continues to use inefficient irrigation methods; more than 50 percent of allocated water is lost to evaporation or seepage into the ground in improperly lined irrigation canals. Despite ongoing concerns about water scarcity, agriculture remains an important part of the economies of downstream states. Uzbekistan, in particular, depends heavily on continued cotton production. The country is one of the world's top 10 cotton exporters and the crop is one of Uzbekistan's largest sources of revenue from exports. Uzbekistan uses more water from the Aral Sea basin for irrigation than any other country in Central Asia, directing it mainly to the Fergana Valley. However, this area is particularly vulnerable to strife because its borders are arranged in a way that exacerbates the region's numerous ethnic and clan divisions — another legacy of the Soviet era. In Turkmenistan, the Mary clan, which dominates agriculture and the illicit drug trade along the Karakum canal, has no official role in the government, and a decline in water supply could embolden them to pressure Ashgabat. To a certain extent, all Central Asian countries deal with ethnic discord, and their stability is highly dependent on maintaining or expanding water access. Consequently, these countries have an interest in finding ways to reverse their bleak resource outlook. Options for Modernizing Water Use Regardless of whether Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are able to build their proposed hydroelectric dam projects, downriver countries will have some ability to mitigate water issues through the improvement of irrigation systems. Currently, the region's irrigation and canal systems are extremely inefficient and in need of maintenance, which has been lacking in both Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Additionally, improper use of irrigation has led to increased salinity in the ground, which decreases the quality of the soil and can lower crop yields. Some potential irrigation improvements include lining canals and ditches with concrete or newer synthetic materials, repairing or replacing Soviet-era equipment and implementing techniques such as drip irrigation. Each of these methods could decrease water usage. Though highly unlikely given cotton's economic importance to Uzbekistan, the region could also switch from cotton to crops that require less water.
Irrigated Land in Central Asia
However, the political and economic situations in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan could prevent widespread improvement in the water distribution system. Improvements to the system would likely require both foreign funding and foreign expertise to implement. Due in part to their hydrocarbon reserves, the downriver countries are richer than Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, but they are still quite poor by Western standards. The projected costs of even a partial rehabilitation of water pumping stations, meanwhile, could be well into the hundreds of millions of dollars. At roughly $1,400 per hectare, the estimated cost of implementing drip irrigation in more than 4 million hectares of irrigated land in Uzbekistan would exceed $5 billion. Uzbekistan's annual gross domestic product was $45 billion and Turkmenistan's was $24 billion in 2011, so the countries would probably need outside assistance. While there are several international water system initiatives in various stages of approval, including proposed projects sponsored by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, it remains unclear whether any of these projects will ever be implemented. Uzbekistan, which continues to receive Western criticism for child labor practices in its agriculture sector (among other issues), remains relatively closed to foreign investment and involvement. Some reports in the past year have indicated that China may be interested in investing in Uzbekistan, and Beijing's investment may well be more welcome than that of any Western partners. Turkmenistan has a much smaller population to support than Uzbekistan, making improvements to its water usage system a somewhat less pressing concern. Still, the Turkmen government is likely to continue trying to appease the Mary clan in its main agricultural area to avoid prompting the kind of ethnic backlash that could jeopardize political stability. Kazakhstan is in a slightly better position than the other two downriver countries. Because it is more open to outside assistance and has more money at its disposal, the country — in cooperation with the World Bank — has been able to launch a rehabilitation project for the Aral Sea. Under the first phase of the project, Kazakhstan completed the Kokaral dam in 2005, allowing a northern portion of the Aral Sea to be partially restored and small-scale fishing to resume. The second phase calls for the construction of another dam and the rehabilitation of other irrigation schemes along the Syr Darya. Despite Kazakhstan's limited progress and the numerous proposed development projects of the region, comprehensive action to improve the regional irrigation situation appears to have stalled. While improvements to the efficiency of the system are possible, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, two of the three largest water users, appear unable or unwilling to pursue the kinds of measures that could mitigate a water crisis. Thus, as these countries compete for a limited and potentially shrinking resource, tensions are likely to rise and could eventually boil over into a military confrontation should the threats to their water supply become sufficiently dire.
Two
of Central Asia's poorest countries, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, are
attempting to leverage one of their few geographic advantages — control
over the headwaters of two major regional rivers — to build new hydropower dams.
The proposed dams offer the prospect of boosting electricity
production, which could lessen the two countries' energy dependence on
their richer downstream neighbors, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and
Turkmenistan. The projects could eventually even allow Kyrgyzstan and
Tajikistan to export excess energy to China, Afghanistan and Pakistan if
the necessary infrastructure is built, which would be extremely
valuable for the two historically poor countries. However, the new dams
could also reduce water flow to the downstream countries at a time when
water resources in the region are already strained due to water
diversion measures, inefficient infrastructure and general overuse.
Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are concerned that if the dams
are built, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will hoard water in reservoirs
during the summer months (when the downriver agricultural regions need
it most) in order to release it during the winter to generate
hydroelectric power. Financing for the hydropower dams has not yet been
secured, but if the projects do proceed, tensions between Kyrgyzstan and
Tajikistan and their downriver neighbors are likely to increase. Though
military confrontations are unlikely in the near term, any developments
that jeopardize the downriver countries' water supply could prompt a
harsh response.
Considering that the Sahara Desert covers most
of Algeria, it comes as no surprise that the country is a water-scarce nation.
Beyond the severity of its climate and geography, however, overexploitation is
degrading Algeria's naturally available water resources to an alarming extent.
To support a growing and rapidly urbanizing population, Algiers hopes to employ
technological solutions to maximize the country's limited water
supplies.
Desalination plants and large water
conveyance projects involving tunneling, channeling and pipelines offer a
potential fix, but there will be an associated increase in production
costs. Water infrastructure maintenance will also become more expensive as a
result. Low oil prices, coupled with the political need to maintain social
spending ahead of a transition of government, are straining the Algerian budget.
As a result, public-private partnerships are vital to assuring — if not
improving — access to water throughout the country.
Algeria's per capita water availability is less
than 300 cubic meters per year, which puts the country well below the threshold
for the U.N. definition of water poverty. By comparison,Mexico'sper capita water availability is roughly 3,700
cubic meters per year, andEgypt'sis
approximately 700 cubic meters per year.
It doesn't help that Algeria's water is
unevenly distributed. Most of the country's surface water resources, in the form
of rivers and lakes, are concentrated in the country's north, along with the
bulk of Algeria's population. Desalination production accounted for
approximately 7 percent of water consumed in 2012, but this still favors the
north, which has access to the limited shoreline. Growing desalination capacity
has helped increase water availability in the coastal cities, but as much as 30
percent of general supply is lost as it is distributed through Algeria's aging,
leaking water transportation infrastructure. Many citizens simply do not have
daily access to running water.
There is water in the sparsely populated
central and southern parts of the country, but it is primarily groundwater — and
it is at risk. Not only are the aquifers beneath Algeria's desert very slow to
recharge, the non-renewable water drawn from them is sometimes called fossil
water because it has sat undisturbed in the aquifers for millennia. As well as
suffering from declining quality — increased salinity, nitrate contamination —
the slowly draining aquifers have resulted in dry wells in some regions.
Algerian groundwater withdrawals are roughly double the annual recharge rate:
Approximately 3 billion cubic meters are withdrawn, but only 1.5 billion cubic
meters are renewed each year. And the problem is spreading: Even aquifers
farther north, on the Moroccan border near the Mediterranean, are showing signs
of diminishing quantity and quality.
The vast
Northwestern Sahara Aquifer System that lies beneath most of Algeria's interior
is already showing signs of decline. Exploitation of the aquifer has increased
significantly over the past several decades, and withdrawals now are estimated
to be more than 2.5 billion cubic meters per year. Recharge rates, however, are
only estimated at around 1 billion cubic meters per year. Unfortunately for
Algeria, withdrawals from this aquifer system will only increase, contributing
to the decline of water supplies and quality overall. In 2006, the government
attempted to enumerate the amount of wells and boreholes in the nation's aquifer
systems to get a better idea of how much water was being extracted. Algiers
hopes to regulate usage more effectively, but illegal drilling — potentially in
the order of tens of thousands of illegal boreholes — has made estimating
and regulating water use nearly impossible. Because of overexploitation and
illegal drilling, wells have to be drilled deeper, which raises the cost of
access and contributes to environmental damage.
As Algeria's population grows and urbanizes,
less water will be available per person. In the 1960s, Algeria's annual per
capita availability was more than 1,000 cubic meters. Now it is 292 cubic
meters. In contrast to availability, the volume of pumped water increased
by 525 percent over the second half of the 20th century. Algeria's annual water
consumption is now approximately 67 percent of its renewable resources, or about
8.4 billion cubic meters out of 11.7 billion cubic meters. By
comparison, Turkmenistanand Azerbaijan — both energy-producing countries
with per capita GDPs comparable to Algeria's — consume 113 percent and 35
percent of their total renewable water resources respectively. Both countries
also have much higher per capita water availability than Algeria
does.
Algeria's Expensive Water Strategy
Algiers' water management strategy focuses on
making the most of existing water resources through redistribution, increased
storage capacity and enhanced desalination capacity. The Algerian water
distribution network stretches more than 58,000 kilometers (roughly 36,000
miles) and can move over 3 billion cubic meters of water per year. In terms of
storage, there are already more than 70 large dams in Algeria, but increasing
storage capacity is an important part of the capital's water strategy. When it
comes to desalination production capacity, growth has skyrocketed from less than
50,000 cubic meters per day in 2002 to more than 2 million cubic meters per day
in 2015. The Magtaa plant, which began operations in 2014, has a capacity of
half a million cubic meters per day — enough to provide adequate drinking water
for 5 million citizens. There are plans to expand desalination capacity for
seawater and brackish groundwater in the near future.
For a country with some of the lowest water
prices in the region, Algeria relies heavily on expensive water management
solutions. Even with recent revisions to the water pricing system, the cost of
water is so low that it does not encourage conservation. In fact, prices do not
even cover production and maintenance costs, let alone treatment of wastewater.
Moving a comparatively heavily liquid such as water from its point of origin to
point of consumption entails significant costs, both for the initial
construction of the infrastructure and for operations and maintenance
thereafter. A large-scale transfer project to move water from Ain Salah to
Tamanrasset (completed in 2011) cost roughly $2.5 billion, not including the
ongoing operation and maintenance expenses. Desalination operations are even
more energy intensive and costly than water conveyance. Water produced at
desalination plants in the Arab region costs between 50 cents and 60 cents per
cubic meter — compared to around 5 cents per cubic meter for groundwater, and
20-50 cents per cubic meter for surface water. Although energy is a factor in
the higher price of water from desalination plants, more than half of the cost
is attributed to factors other than energy, such as labor and
chemicals.
Without investment from the government — not
just in big nameplate projects but also in routine maintenance and efforts to
improve efficiency and regulation — the availability and quality of Algeria's
water supply will keep declining. However, the government cannot foot the bill
alone. Private investment will be necessary to safeguard the country's water
supply. Public-private partnerships in the water sector are partly responsible
for the recent surge in desalination capacity. In addition, private
organizations are responsible for water management in some of the country's
largest cities, including Algiers, Annaba, Oran and Constantine.
Algeria's 2015-2019 Development Plan earmarked nearly $18 billion for water infrastructure projects. But throughout 2015 and into 2016, low oil prices have put a burden on the government's budget. Algiers' top spending priority will be security services, especially for energy assets. Furthermore, the country has a history of using social spending to quell civil unrest. President Abdel Aziz Bouteflika used public spending campaigns to fend off protests after the Arab Spring brought down other leaders in the region. Even with low oil prices straining Algiers' finances, the government is more likely to spend its reserves on subsidies than risk unrest. Whatever government takes power following the upcoming transition, it will likely continue with that strategy because Algiers and the populace remain wary of political unrest, a legacy of the country's decadelong civil war (1991-2002).
Water's Role in Algeria's Future
Because oil prices are expected to remain low
for a while, Algiers is searching for new sources of revenue. Algeria's vast
potential shale reserves are one such source. However, water security was a
common theme during recent protests regarding shale extraction, and concerns
about water scarcity could hinder the development of Algerian shale over the
next five to seven years. Technological solutions that limit or eliminate
water's role in hydraulic fracturing could allow Algeria to exploit its shale
reserves in the long term, although given the protest culture of the country and
region, demonstrations against hydraulic fracturing could still occur even if
water use is addressed. There is little doubt that water is part of a
circle of causation and control: It remains a key factor in keeping Algeria's
security situation manageable, which is vital to keeping the country attractive
to foreign investment, which in turn is crucial to maintaining the water supply.
The protest culture in Algeria means that subsidies that benefit the population
cannot be rolled back easily. Therefore, water prices will remain low and
foreign investment will still be needed to maintain or improve Algerians' access
to water.
Climate changes — specifically, higher
temperatures and less rain — are predicted for the coming decades in Algeria and
the wider region. At the same time, the population is expanding and urbanizing,
consuming more water than ever before. This adds to the stress on the country's
already scarce water resources. Greater desalination capacity, improvements to
existing infrastructure and additional water conveyance projects — created
through cooperation between the public and private sectors — could alleviate
some supply concerns, especially in urban areas. But, if short-term budgetary
problems lead Algiers to neglect the country's water infrastructure, the
longer-term implications are dire. Declining quality, infrequent availability or
more dependence on expensive water from desalination plants will contribute to
the potential for social unrest. As overexploitation creates more obvious
environmental degradation and further reduces water supplies, dissent will
become a greater threat to the government. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Algeria's Expensive Water
Problem 轉載自: https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/algerias-expensive-water-problem
Algeria's per capita water availability is less
than 300 cubic meters per year, which is well below the threshold for the U.N.
definition of water poverty. Many citizens simply do not have daily access to
running water. The
country's water is also unevenly distributed, with most of its surface water resources concentrated
in the north, along with the bulk of its population. There is water in the sparsely populated
central and southern parts of the country, but it is primarily groundwater — and
it is at risk. Not only are the aquifers beneath Algeria's desert very slow to
recharge, the non-renewable water drawn from them is sometimes called fossil
water because it has sat undisturbed in the aquifers for millennia. Algerian
groundwater withdrawals are roughly double the annual recharge rate, and the
problem is spreading: Even aquifers farther north are showing signs of
diminishing quantity and quality. Algiers' water management strategy focuses on
making the most of existing water resources through redistribution, increased
storage capacity and enhanced desalination capacity. But for a country with some
of the lowest water prices in the region, Algeria relies heavily on expensive
water management solutions. Without government investment, the availability and
quality of Algeria's water supply will continue to decline. However, the
government cannot foot the bill alone — private investment will be necessary to
safeguard the country's water supply. Climate changes — specifically, higher
temperatures and less rain — are predicted for the coming decades in Algeria and
the wider region. At the same time, the population is expanding and urbanizing,
consuming more water than ever before. Greater desalination capacity,
improvements to existing infrastructure and additional water conveyance projects
— created through cooperation between the public and private sectors — could
alleviate some supply concerns, especially in urban areas. But, if short-term
budgetary problems lead Algiers to neglect the country's water infrastructure,
the longer-term implications are dire. Declining quality, infrequent
availability or more dependence on expensive water from desalination plants will
contribute to the potential for social unrest.
Brian Mancini: Most of my forehead was blasted out, I had a basal skull fracture along with some fractured vertebrae in my back and some burns and shrapnel. When I was doing the assessment of my injuries, I remember laying down and opening my mouth as wide as possible and reaching in and scraping the debris that had been knocked loose, and the blood, from my airway so I could breathe. And shortly after that, I lost consciousness.
