埃及與 Renaissance Dam 磋商

博主補充: 從 1926 Dr. John Ball, the director of the Desert Surveys Department of the Survey of Egypt Authority (英國之保護國) 開始, 到 1957 年美國 CIA, 都專題地以引地中海水入低地 Qattara (地圖紅點) (19,605 平方公里, 平均深 60 公尺至133 公尺) 發電, 以改善沙漠氣候為目的. 今天廉價的光伏已經可以成就這些目標. 日出後, 廣大的光伏陣列將低地裡經過 24 小時水力發電的海水全部抽走, 通過 400 公里人造運河送入紅海. 廉價水電輸往歐洲賺取差價.  參考:  中国电建承建阿尔及利亚首个大规模光伏电站并网发电   http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_b96391280102y7jh.html

    Source: Google map

Egypt unable to find agreement in Renaissance Dam talks

轉載自: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/11/egypt-fail-renaissance-dam-negotiations-studies.html#ixzz54KlUBYyJ

Ayah Aman November 22, 2017 

CAIRO — Egypt has officially announced that the technical negotiations with Ethiopia and Sudan over the Renaissance Dam have failed. The announcement came following a round of tripartite deliberations between all the countries' ministers of water in Cairo on Nov. 11 and 12 regarding the completion of the impact assessment of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. 

Egyptian Minister of Water and Irrigation Mohamed Abdel Aty said in a Nov. 12 statement, “Egypt is worried about the failure of the technical negotiations because it jeopardizes the future of cooperation between Sudan and Ethiopia and their ability to agree on the Renaissance Dam and to avoid its potential risks while preserving Egypt’s water security.” 

The statement of the Egyptian Ministry of Water and Irrigation was a bold revelation of the reality of the negotiations behind closed doors. The negotiations began when Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and his Ethiopian and Sudanese counterparts signed the Declaration of Principles in March 2015 as a cooperation framework on the Renaissance Dam issue. 

Ever since, Egypt has taken part in a series of deliberations involving experts and state officials. However, despite the deliberations, the two most contentious points concerning the filling and operation of the dam remain unresolved. 

Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia had formed a tripartite national committee that chose two French consultancy firms to conduct a technical study on the hydraulic, environmental, economic and social impact of the Renaissance Dam on Egypt and Sudan. After agreeing on the terms and the implementation method of the studies, contracts were signed in September 2016 to conduct the studies over a period of 11 months. 

But the disputes began surfacing when the consultancy firms started their work.

In the statement issued by the Egyptian Ministry of Water and Irrigation, Egypt accused Sudan and Ethiopia of trying to introduce amendments to the Declaration of Principles "in their interest, knowing that such amendments would undermine the results of the studies and render them useless.” 

An official in the Egyptian negotiation delegation revealed to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity the real reasons behind the dispute, saying, “Egypt wants the technical studies to produce clear results about the negative effects of the Renaissance Dam on its water security, in particular the impact on water flow rates to the High Dam lake, the impact on the salinity in Egyptian agricultural lands in the Delta and the drop in electricity generation in the High Dam. But Ethiopia and Sudan are trying to direct the studies in a way that portrays the Renaissance Dam as having positive impacts and plays up shared interests.” 

The official added, “The most contentious issue is the impact of the Renaissance Dam on Egypt’s current utilization of [its historical share of] the Nile Water guaranteed under the 1959 agreement, which Ethiopia refuses to acknowledge. The dispute is pivotal, and the Egyptian delegation cannot let it go it because it is a pillar to ensuring Egypt’s water interests.” 

The official noted, “Sudan raised another issue of dispute related to the suitability of the mechanism to measure its share of the Nile Water, estimated at 18.5 billion cubic meters.” 

He went on, “Egypt realized the danger of wasting time on the technical track in light of the intransigence of the other parties. It was important to reveal the truth after its efforts to use legal and technical arguments to support its stance in the course of the negotiations failed. A plan to take diplomatic, legal and technical action to garner regional and international support for the Egyptian position is underway.” 

Sudan condemned Egypt’s statement. Sudanese Ambassador to Egypt Abdul Hamid Abdul Mahmoud told Al-Monitor, “Egypt’s reaction stirs suspicion about the future of negotiations and does not pave the way for any sort of action, be it in the interest of Egypt or any of the negotiating parties.” 

He asserted, “Sudan has tried to save the technical and political negotiations, and it has the right to take the path that would serve its interests best.” 

Cairo did not stop with the press statement. Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry met with his Saudi counterpart Adel al-Jubeir on Nov. 14. The Egyptian Foreign Ministry released a press statement in the wake of the meeting, saying, “The kingdom understands Egypt’s concerns over its water security and the importance of committing to the rules of international law.” 

Egypt’s Cabinet issued a statement during its first meeting following the Nov. 15 negotiations, saying, “We will take the necessary measures on all levels, since water security is central to Egypt’s national security.” 

Rawiya Toufic, assistant professor at the University of Cairo and researcher at the German Development Institute, told Al-Monitor, “Egypt finally admitted the failure of the technical track, which reached a dead end. … Egypt still has to outline the next steps to overcome the crisis.” 

She went on, “The Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Irrigation as well as the cabinet should take action in the next phase to clarify Egypt’s stance on all levels to the public at home and abroad.” 

Toufic argued, “Egypt’s presidential intervention at this point will bring nothing new to the table. The presidential summit of the Nile Basin countries in Uganda in June proved that. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Irrigation should take the lead now and give a clear idea of Egypt’s stance, the concessions it expects Ethiopia to make and what Egypt can offer in return.” 

On Egypt’s escalatory steps so far, Toufic commented, “Legal action at this point might not give decisive results in Egypt’s favor, because there is no tangible harm done yet. Besides, the political tools are weak amid the complex regional context. Gulf countries are preoccupied with their disputes and do not hold real cards to pressure Ethiopia. Eritrea is also fighting its own internal demons, and Sudan’s stance is known and grows firmer by the day.” 

With the deteriorating negotiations that have not produced any solutions to appease Egypt’s concerns about the Renaissance Dam, the Egyptian administration has no options left but to expose the truth of what is happening at the negotiation table and focus on direct ways of coming to agreements. 

But like most Egypt's moves in the matter, any further efforts are likely to come too late, as the Declaration of Principles recognizes Ethiopia’s right and sovereignty in building and operating the dam without binding it to any written pledges to involve Egypt in the storage and operation processes.

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延伸閱讀:

Egypt’s Desert Dreams: Development or Disaster?

By David Sims  p.36 - 37, 38 - 39, 40 - 41, 42-43

創傷性腦病變是不治之症?美式足球, 老兵, 拳擊

博主之內容提要:  美国职业橄榄球大联盟球員離世後捐贈作研究的大腦標本共111個, 其中110個有創傷性腦病變 CTE (不治之症). 阿富汗美兵只要經歷一次路邊炸彈 IDE, 縱使生還, 很大機會(102個老兵66個有症狀)患上創傷性腦病變CTE . 目前從戰場返美的三十萬老兵, 經歷多次路邊炸彈者因為創傷性腦病變而慢慢死去一批. 消息一旦流傳, 美國可能從此招不到步兵, 從而放棄好戰策略, 或依賴機器人作戰. 

轉載自:  https://www.cbsnews.com/news/combat-veterans-coming-home-with-cte (有片)

2018 Jan 07   Correspondent Sharyn Alfonsi

什麼是 CTE https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/慢性創傷性腦病變 
什麼是 IDE  https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/簡易爆炸裝置

Until a few years ago, NFL players who struggled with severe depression, bouts of rage and memory loss in their retirement were often told they were just having a hard time adjusting to life away from the game. Doctors have since learned these changes can be symptoms of the degenerative brain disease CTE -- chronic traumatic encephalopathy, caused by blows to the head.
What we're learning now is that CTE isn't just affecting athletes, but also showing up in our nation's heroes. Since 9/11 over 300,000 soldiers have returned home with brain injuries. Researchers fear the impact of CTE could cripple a generation of warriors.
When Joy Kieffer buried her 34-year old son this past summer, it was the end of a long goodbye.

Kieffer's son, Sgt. Kevin Ash, enlisted in the Army Reserves at the age of 18. Over three deployments, he was exposed to 12 combat blasts, many of them roadside bombs. He returned home in 2012 a different man.
Joy Kieffer: His whole personality had changed. I thought it was exposure to all of the things that he had seen, and he had just become harder. You know, but he was -- he was not happy.
Sharyn Alfonsi: So at this point, you're thinking this decline, this change in my child is just that he's been in war and he's seen too much.
Joy Kieffer: Right.
Sharyn Alfonsi: Did he tell you about blasts that he experienced during that time?
Joy Kieffer: Uh-huh.
Sharyn Alfonsi: What did he--tell you?
Joy Kieffer: That they shook him. And he was having blackouts. And -- it frightened him.
Ash withdrew from family and friends. He was angry. Depressed. Doctors prescribed therapy and medication, but his health began to decline quickly. By his 34th birthday, Sgt. Kevin Ash was unable to speak, walk or eat on his own.    
Sharyn Alfonsi: Looking back on it now, was there anything you feel like he could've done?
Joy Kieffer: Uh-uh.
Sharyn Alfonsi: Because?
Joy Kieffer: Because it was-- it-- it was his brain. The thing I didn't know was that his brain was continuing to die. I mean, before he went into the service he said, "you know, I could come back with no legs, or no arms, or even blind, or I could be shot, I could die," but nobody ever said that he could lose his mind one day at a time.
His final wish was to serve his country one last time by donating his brain to science -- a gesture he thought would bring better understanding to the invisible wounds of war.
Joy reached out to the VA-Boston University-Concussion Legacy Foundation Brain Bank where neuropathologist Dr. Ann McKee is leading the charge in researching head trauma and the degenerative brain disease CTE.
McKee has spent fourteen years looking at the postmortem brains of hundreds of athletes who suffered concussions while playing their sport.
This past summer, her findings shook the football world when she discovered CTE in the brains of 110 out of 111 deceased NFL players -- raising serious concerns for those in the game today.
And when Dr. McKee autopsied Patriots tight-end Aaron Hernandez who killed himself after being convicted of murder, she found the most severe case of CTE ever, in someone under 30.
Now she's seeing a similar pattern in deceased veterans who experienced a different kind of head trauma -- combat blasts. Of the 102 veterans' brains Dr. Mckee's examined, 66 had CTE.
Sharyn Alfonsi: I can understand a football player who keeps, you know, hitting his head, and having impact and concussions. But how is it that a combat veteran, who maybe just experienced a blast, has the same type of injury?
Dr. Ann McKee: This blast injury causes a tremendous sort of-- ricochet or-- or-- a whiplash injury to the brain inside the skull and that's what gives rise to the same changes that we see in football players, as in military veterans.

"This is a disease and a problem that we're going to be dealing with for decades. And it's a huge public health problem. It's a huge problem for the Veterans Administration. It's a huge moral responsibility for all of us."

Blast trauma was first recognized back in World War I. Known as 'shell shock,' poorly protected soldiers often died immediately or went on to suffer physical and psychological symptoms.  Today, sophisticated armor allows more soldiers to walk away from an explosion but exposure can still damage the brain -- an injury that can worsen over time.
Dr. Ann McKee: It's not a new injury. But what's been really stumping us, I think, as-- as physicians is it's not easily detectable, right? It's-- you've got a lot of psychiatric symptoms-- and you can't see it very well on images of the brain and so it didn't occur to us. And I think that's been the gap, really, that this has been what everyone calls an invisible injury.
Dr. Ann McKee: This is the world's largest CTE brain bank.
The only foolproof way to diagnose CTE is by testing a post-mortem brain.
Sharyn Alfonsi: So these are full of hundreds of brains...
Dr. Ann McKee: Hundreds of brains, thousands really...
Researchers carefully dissect sections of the brain where they look for changes in the folds of the frontal lobes - an area responsible for memory, judgement, emotions, impulse control and personality.Dr. Ann McKee: Do you see there's a tiny little hole there? That is an abnormality. And it's a clear abnormality.
Sharyn Alfonsi: And what would that affect?
Dr. Ann McKee: Well, it's part of the memory circuit. You can see that clear hole there that shouldn't be there. It's connecting the important memory regions of the brain with other regions. So that is a sign of CTE.
Thin slivers of the affected areas are then stained and viewed microscopically. It's in these final stages where a diagnosis becomes clear as in the case of Sgt. Kevin Ash.
Sharyn Alfonsi: So this is Sergeant Ash's brain?
Dr. Ann McKee: Right. This is-- four sections of his brain. And what you can see is-- these lesions. The, and those lesions are CTE And they're in very characteristic parts of the brain. They're at the bottom of the crevice. That's a unique feature of CTE.Sharyn Alfonsi: And in a healthy brain, you wouldn't see any of those kind of brown spots?
Dr. Ann McKee: No, no, it would be completely clear. And then when you look microscopically, you can see that the tau, which is staining brown and is inside nerve cells is surrounding these little vessels.
Sharyn Alfonsi: And explain, what is the tau?
Dr. Ann McKee: So tau is a protein that's normally in the nerve cell. It helps with structure and after trauma, it starts clumping up as a toxin inside the nerve cell. And over time, and even years, gradually that nerve cell dies.
Dr. Lee Goldstein has been building on Dr. McKee's work with testing on mice.  
Inside his Boston University lab, Dr. Goldstein built a 27-foot blast tube where a mouse - and in this demonstration, a model - is exposed to an explosion equivalent to the IEDs used in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Dr. Lee Goldstein: When it reaches about 25 this thing is going to go.
Dr. Goldstein's model shows what's going on inside the brain during a blast. The brightly colored waves illustrate stress on the soft tissues of the brain as it ricochets back and forth within the skull.
Dr. Lee Goldstein: What we see after these blast exposures, the animals actually look fine. Which is shocking to us. So they come out of what is a near lethal blast exposure, just like our military service men and women do. And they appear to be fine. But what we know is that that brain is not the same after that exposure as it was microseconds before. And if there is a subsequent exposure, that change will be accelerated. And ultimately, this triggers a neurodegenerative disease. And, in fact, we can see that really after even one of these exposures.
Sharyn Alfonsi: The Department of Defense estimates hundreds of thousands of soldiers have experienced a blast like this. What does that tell you?
Dr. Lee Goldstein: This is a disease and a problem that we're going to be dealing with for decades. And it's a huge public health problem. It's a huge problem for the Veterans Administration. It's a huge moral responsibility for all of us.
A responsibility owed to soldiers like 33-year-old Sgt. Tom Bates.
Sgt. Tom Bates: We were struck with a large IED. It was a total devastation strike.Bates miraculously walked away from a mangled humvee -- one of four IED blasts he survived during deployments in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Sharyn Alfonsi: Do you remember feeling the impact in your body?
Sgt. Tom Bates: Yes. Yeah.
Sharyn Alfonsi: What does that feel like?
Sgt. Tom Bates: Just basically like getting hit by a train.
Sharyn Alfonsi: And you were put back on the frontlines.
Sgt. Tom Bates: Yes.
Sharyn Alfonsi: And that was it?
Sgt. Tom Bates: Uh-huh
When Bates returned home in 2009, his wife Libby immediately saw a dramatic change.Libby Bates: I thought, "Something is not absolutely right here. Something's going on. For him to just lay there and to sob and be so sad. You know, what do you do for that? How do I-- how do I help him?  He would look at me and say, "If it wasn't for you, I would end it all right now." You know, I mean, like, what do you-- what do you do-- and what do you say to somebody who says that? You know I love this man so much. And --
Sharyn Alfonsi: You're going to the VA, you're getting help, but did you feel like you weren't getting answers?
Sgt. Tom Bates: Yes.
Sharyn Alfonsi: And so you took it into your own hands and started researching?
Sgt. Tom Bates:  I knew the way everything had gone and how quick a lot of my neurological issues had progressed that something was wrong. And I just-- I wanted answers for it.
That led him to New York's Mount Sinai Hospital where neurologist Dr. Sam Gandy is trying to move beyond diagnosing CTE only in the dead by using scans that test for the disease in the living.
Dr. Sam Gandy: By having this during life, this now gives us for the first time the possibility of estimating the true prevalence of the disease. It's important to estimate prevalence so that people can have some sense of what the risk is.
In the past year, 36 veterans and athletes have been tested for the disease here. Tom Bates asked to be a part of it.
That radioactive tracer - known as t807 - clings to those dead clusters of protein known as tau, which are typical markers of the disease.  
Through the course of a 20 minute PET scan, high resolution images are taken of the brain and then combined with MRI results to get a 360 degree picture of whether there are potential signs of CTE.
Scan results confirmed what Tom and Libby had long suspected.
On the right, we see a normal brain scan with no signs of CTE next to Tom's brain where tau deposits, possible markers of CTE, are bright orange.Dr. Sam Gandy: Here these could be responsible for some of the anxiety and depression he's suffered and we're concerned it will progress.
Sgt. Tom Bates: My hope is that this study becomes more prominent, and gets to more veterans, and stuff like that so we can actually get, like, a reflection of what population might actually have this.
There is no cure for CTE.
Dr. Gandy hopes his trial will lead to drug therapies so he can offer some relief to patients like Tom.
Dr. Ann McKee believes some people may be at higher risk of getting the disease than others.
While examining NFL star Aaron Hernandez's brain she identified a genetic bio-marker she believes may have predisposed him to CTE.
A discovery that could have far-reaching implications on the football field and battlefield.
Sharyn Alfonsi: Do you think you will ever be your old self again?
Sgt. Tom Bates: I don't ever see me being my old self again. I think it's just too far gone.
Sharyn Alfonsi: So what's your hope then?
Sgt. Tom Bates: Just to not become worse than I am now.
Produced by Ashley Velie. Associate producer, Dina Zingaro.
For families who wish to donate a brain for research please contact the CTE Center/Brain Bank Directly:
Bobbie Abdolmohammadi - 617-414-1184
Laney Evers - 617-414-1187
To sign up to pledge to donate your brain to Dr. Ann McKee's research, please visit https://concussionfoundation.org/pledge

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How IEDs may be physically causing PTSD

Scar tissue found in the brains of combat veterans who suffered from PTSD could mean that many cases of the disorder are caused by physical trauma

• 2018 Apr 01  https://www.cbsnews.com/news/brian-mancini-brain-how-ieds-may-be-physically-causing-ptsd
• Correspondent Scott Pelley    
• 
  
• Editor's Note: Since this story aired, we have received many inquiries about how to contact Dr. Daniel Perl and The Center for Neuroscience and Regenerative Medicine. Here is that information: http://www.researchbraininjury.org or 1-855-366-8824.A new medical discovery has profound implications for wounded warriors. It's a previously unknown type of brain injury uncovered in veterans who are exposed to the invisible wave of energy that erupts from high explosives. The evidence was found in the brains of veterans who died. And tonight, we have a rare opportunity to introduce you to one of the vets who made the discovery possible. Retired Army Sergeant First Class Brian Mancini killed himself in 2017 after descending into psychosis. But we met Mancini years before, in 2011, after he made a nearly miraculous recovery from the impact of a roadside bomb in Iraq. There's no one better to begin this story, than the late Brian Mancini himself.  
  
  

• Brian Mancini in 2011

  CBS News

  Brian Mancini: I got hit in the face. I knew pretty early that I had lost my eye. I didn't know how severe my injuries were, but I knew I was hurt very bad.
  We met Brian Mancini six years before his suicide. We had followed a group of wounded vets back to Iraq on a therapy program, endorsed by the Pentagon, designed to help them come to terms with the day they were wounded and leave that day behind.
  Brian Mancini: You know, we often hear about guys that carry these heartaches their whole lives. And it slowly erodes them. I don't want to be that guy, you know? I want to be able to have a successful life and not burdened with the demons that I see here.
  Brian Mancini: I'm glad I'm alive.
  On that return trip to Iraq, Mancini visited the field hospital that saved him.
  Brian Mancini: My whole face has been rebuilt. I used to look like Brad Pitt but this is what I got stuck with.
  Brian Mancini: I have a titanium mesh plate in my forehead. They rebuilt my whole orbital socket. My sinuses were replaced or rebuilt.
  Scott Pelley: How many surgeries did that come to?
  Brian Mancini: I have no idea. I have no idea.
  

  "Brian would often say, 'I don't know if this is real... or if I dreamt it.'"

  Years of surgeries, pain and struggle were witnessed by Brian Mancini's brother and sister, Michael and Nichole.
  Michael Mancini: Oh, he was a patriot. He loved this country. He loved this country.
  Nichole Mancini: He was a natural leader, and I think that the military was a natural fit for him. And he was good at his job, and he loved it.
  After his recovery, he created a new job for himself. At home in Phoenix, he founded "Honor House" to provide wounded vets with therapies that helped him—including yoga, acupuncture, and especially fly-fishing.
  Brian Mancini: He came leaps and bounds. And Brian two years ago was the best Brian I've ever known in my life.  
  But as he reached his peak in 2015, Mancini suddenly began to suffer delusions. He imagined the government was spying on him, that members of the Honor House board were with the CIA. And he thought he was being tracked with cell phones.
  Michael Mancini: It was delusional, it was irrational, it was like, a progression.
  Nichole Mancini: He wouldn't let us have our cell phones around him.
  Michael Mancini: Very paranoid.
  Nichole Mancini: His mind had started to almost turn against him. And people that—
  Scott Pelley: His mind had turned against him?
  Nichole Mancini: Yeah. Brian would often say, "I don't know if this is real or if I had if I dreamt it."
  The Honor House board took control of the charity from Mancini. He had been depressed before, but not insane. Last year, Mancini donated his life savings to his church, drove to this remote canal, and shot himself in the head. The betrayal of his mind had been so sudden, so shocking, that his family was certain there must be a cause that no one understood.
  Michael Mancini: And the first initial thought to me was, "I need to find someone who would take my brother's brain tissue for further study and further research."
  
  The Mancini's found neuropathologist Dr. Daniel Perl.
  
  

• Correspondent Scott Pelley with Dr. Daniel Perl

  CBS News

  Perl oversees the brain tissue repository at the Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, the military medical school in Bethesda, Maryland. Perl also wondered whether some torments of war might be rooted in an undiscovered kind of brain injury caused by the supersonic pressure wave of high explosives.
  Dr. Daniel Perl: That started in World War I and we had the whole issue of shell shock. And then in World War II, we had battle fatigue. Then in Korea, we had PTSD. I mean, these were all expressions of responses to being in warfare, much of it being exposed to blast. And we knew nothing about what was going on in the brain.
  Perl's team sliced brain tissue from eight veterans and examined the tissue under a microscope. Rare for its power.
  Scott Pelley: That doesn't look like the one I had in high school.
  Dr. Daniel Perl: No, it's not.
  Perl says his microscope is thousands of times more powerful than the best MRI. And it helped them discover this previously unknown form of brain injury when Perl compared the brains of the vets to civilians who had injured their brains in car wrecks.  
  Dr. Daniel Perl: The difference is just so dramatic.
  Scott Pelley: These on the left are people who suffered--
  Dr. Daniel Perl: A single individual's brain who suffered an automobile accident. A single individual who was exposed to blast. Stained identically for scarring.
  Scott Pelley: The brown--area is the stain that reveals the scarring and you don't see it in the person who hit their head in the automobile accident.
  Dr. Daniel Perl: That's right.
  Dr. Daniel Perl: When an IED goes off there's a tremendous explosion. And with the explosion comes the formation of something called the blast wave. And it is sufficiently powerful to pass through the skull and through the brain. And when it does that-- it does damage the brain tissue.
  Scott Pelley: Do you have a slide of Brian Mancini's brain?
  Dr. Daniel Perl: Yes, we do.
  The dark brown is scarring, running along lines where two types of brain tissue meet, the so-called gray matter and white matter.
  Dr. Daniel Perl: The locations were areas of the brain that had differing densities. This was the interface between gray matter and white matter, between brain and fluid, such as spinal fluid, or brain and blood.
  Scott Pelley: Why do you see the scarring where the white matter and the gray matter come together?
  Dr. Daniel Perl: The white matter have a somewhat higher density than the gray matter. And that's where the energy of the blast wave is released.
  Scott Pelley: They bang together.
  Dr. Daniel Perl: In a sense, yeah.
  Scott Pelley: Do you see the scarring at these interfaces throughout the entire brain?
  Dr. Daniel Perl: We're looking at that now, okay? By and large, yes.
  Evidence of this scarring was found in all of the veterans - none of the civilians.
  Scott Pelley: Do you believe that you're going to find a connection between this and post-traumatic stress disorder?
  
  Dr. Daniel Perl: In a sense, we already have. Every case that we've looked at has been diagnosed with PTSD And what that connection is, the nature of that connection, whether the scarring in the brain leads one to be more apt to develop PTSD, or whether there's so much overlap between the symptoms that one gets with the damage in the brain that it looks like PTSD, we don't know yet.
• Earlier this season we reported on research by another laboratory into vets who showed evidence of "CTE" the kind of brain injury found in football players. Dr. Perl says his team has discovered something distinct from CTE.
  Dr. Daniel Perl: Very different, okay? One is a huge blast wave that almost destroys his face, passes through his brain. It's a one-time thing. OK? It's not the sorta daily and weekly impact injury that an NFL player has. The other thing is that our service members are coming home from deployment symptomatic. By and large, CTE in the football player, for instance, occurs in their retirement, after they've played.
  Scott Pelley: Years later?
  Dr. Daniel Perl: Years later, right. They become symptomatic. So the timing of it seemed to be a very different proposition.
  Scott Pelley: But it's absolutely clear to you that Brian Mancini did not have CTE?
  Dr. Daniel Perl: That's right. We looked very carefully for CTE in Brian's brain. And he just did not have it.
  Scott Pelley: So what you and your colleagues have discovered is something new?
  Dr. Daniel Perl: Yes. Yes. This is new. This, this has changed thinking about blast exposure and its consequences.
  
  We were able to add something to Dr. Perl's research that he rarely sees, a description of the blast that wounded one of his deceased subjects.
• 
  Brian Mancini: Most of my forehead was blasted out, I had a basal skull fracture along with some fractured vertebrae in my back and some burns and shrapnel. When I was doing the assessment of my injuries, I remember laying down and opening my mouth as wide as possible and reaching in and scraping the debris that had been knocked loose, and the blood, from my airway so I could breathe. And shortly after that, I lost consciousness.
  Dr. Daniel Perl: It's just stunning to see this it's not something I normally get to experience. I mean that he survived this injury is just remarkable, much less what happened afterwards.
  Now that the discovery is known, Perl hopes research can begin into improving the lives of those who suffer with this hidden wound of war.
  Scott Pelley: What's your theory today on how this damage manifests itself in a living human being?
  Dr. Daniel Perl: Well, obviously wherever there is damage, there must be some loss of function. Persistent headaches. They have problems with sleep. They have problems concentrating, memory problems swings of mood, anger management problems.
  The discovery is a lone fact that raises many questions; can the scarring ever be seen in a living patient? How do the scars affect the mind? And what can be done?
  Scott Pelley: If Brian Mancini had come to you in the last year of his life, would you have been able to do anything for him?
  Dr. Daniel Perl: No, I don't think so. I don't think so. We're not there yet. We have a lotta people now beginning to take it seriously and begin work on it. It's not just us in our lab. It's really been a game changer in terms of our approach to this problem.
  Dr. Perl is now searching for preserved brains of World War I veterans to see if the scarring dates to the beginning of widespread use of high explosives in war. Brian Mancini's life was devoted to wounded warriors—first as an Army medic, then in rehabilitation. And now, even in death, his work to heal continues.
  Scott Pelley: And this is what Brian would've wanted?
  Michael Mancini: Oh, absolutely.
  Nichole Mancini: Without a doubt.
  Scott Pelley: Brian is still serving his country.
  Michael Mancini: Amen.
  Brian Mancini: I wouldn't trade any of these horrendous and horrific experiences for anything there's a lesson in everything that we endure in life, And if we can clear all the chaos away and all the heartache away, we can receive that lesson  "Why was I here? What was this for? Why did this happen?" And kind of get some of those answers. And I think that helps in healing long-term.
  Produced by Henry Schuster. Associate Producer, Rachael Morehouse.
  
  
  © 2018 CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.           

颱風限制了香港的發展

前幾年有興趣研究一下趙正義的塔基(赵氏塔基)會不會在香港得到應用, 例如沙田頭路便有一中國路橋的地盤.  後來打颱風了, 二座天秤都不為所動, 要是利用趙正義的活動(可拆解)塔基, 預料銀行保險都不會承擔風險.

打颱風時, 地下鐵路, 東鐵線, 馬鐵都會維持運作, 雖然公共汽車停走了.  將來元朗屯門的架空鐵路設計, 應該維持颱風下繼續運作的優良傳統. 

西班牙大力神燈塔Tower of Hercules

古羅馬人會給燈塔装避雷針?  比較古羅馬人在西班牙的另一支燈塔 - 奇皮奧娜燈塔 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chipiona_Lighthouse   , 那支是沒有装避雷針的.  何解會有大柱將燈光掩蓋?

圖片來源: 上下圖:    https://inaciem.com/roman-empire/tower-of-hercules

以下轉載自維基百科 https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/埃库莱斯塔 

埃庫萊斯塔（加裡西亞語和西班牙語：Torre de Hércules）位於西班牙西北部，距離加利西亞拉科魯尼亞2.4公里的一個半島上。

Hércules 是希臘神話的大力神赫拉克勒斯，因此Torre de Hércules之意為赫拉克勒斯塔。 它建於古羅馬時期，是至今仍然使用的古羅馬時期燈塔中歷史最悠久的，距今約有1,900年。1791年曾經翻新。

 塔高55米，屹立於西班牙西北部大西洋岸上。此塔最早的文獻記載是在公元一、二世紀時，是現時西班牙第二高的燈塔，僅次於奇皮奧娜燈塔 Faro de Chipiona  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chipiona_Lighthouse 

這個塔內部有一個博物館，2009年被列入世界遺產。

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網上當代羅馬歷史學家的解說:

This is the oldest lighthouse still in operation in the world, nearly 2000 years of history, helping sailors looking for a guide in this troubled area of ​​the Atlantic.  The beauty, but also the usefulness of the venerable lighthouse is a symbol of what was the Roman Empire: a mix between business and pleasure, built primarily to perform a function that would serve every citizen.  It experienced  all the history of the Iberian Peninsula since the advent of Latin culture in the countries of western Europe. Source: https://inaciem.com/roman-empire/tower-of-hercules

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西班牙大力神燈塔Tower of Hercules (紅點)以南三十至四十公里則是天主教聖地亞哥德孔波斯特拉 Santiago de Compostela. 維基百科說是相傳耶穌十二門徒之一的大雅各安葬於此，是天主教朝聖勝地之一。自中世紀以來，前來此地的朝聖者絡繹不絕，乃至形成了一條有名的朝聖之路，即聖雅各之路。 聖地亞哥-德孔波斯特拉古城於1985年被列為世界文化遺產。搜索: Santiago de Compostela, botafumeiro (圖片及影片)

朝聖者多天不洗澡, 八名教士齊心協力用滑輪盪千秋似的將香爐(50至160公斤)散播焚香, 有沒有意外? One of the most renowned accidents took place during a visit of Princess Catherine of Aragon. She was on a journey to marry the heir to the English throne in 1499 and stopped by the cathedral in Santiago de Compostela. While it was being swung, the Botafumeiro flew out of the cathedral through the Platerias high window. No one was reported to have been injured on this occasion.The ropes and other devices securing the Botafumeiro have also failed; on May 23, 1622, and more recently in 1925 and July 1937. In 1622, the Botafumeiro fell at the feet of the tiraboleiros. In July 1937, the cords holding the Botafumeiro failed again, and hot coals were spilled onto the floor.  Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Botafumeiro

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西班牙大力神燈塔是否世俗和宗教之爭的結果?  


延伸閱讀:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persecution_of_Christians_in_the_Roman_Empire

西班牙加利西亞的死亡海岸

轉載自: https://www.roughguides.com/destinations/europe-2/spain/galicia/the-costa-da-morte/

Wild, windy and at times desolate, the Costa da Morte, west of A Coruña, is often passed over by tourists heading south to the beaches of the Rías Baixas. But while the Costa da Morte lacks both the climate and the infrastructure for large-scale tourism, it’s not nearly as overdeveloped as the regions to the south, while boasting similarly beautiful coves, tiny fishing villages huddled against the headlands, and forested mountain slopes aplenty.

Its fearsome name, which means Coast of Death, stems from the constant buffeting the shoreline receives from the Atlantic waves. The most notorious of the countless shipwrecks that litter the sea bed is the oil tanker Prestige, which snapped in two following a ferocious storm in 2002. Although 77,000 tonnes of crude oil were released into the ocean, barely a trace of oil remained just twelve months later.

The coast from Camariñas to Fisterra is the most exposed and westerly stretch of all. Ever since a Roman expedition under Lucius Florus Brutus was brought up short by what seemed to be an endless sea, it has been known as finis terrae (the end of the world), and it is not hard to see why. This is prime territory, however, for hunting percebes (barnacles), one of Galicia’s most popular and expensive seafood delicacies, which have to be scooped up from the very waterline. Collectors are commonly swept away by the dreaded “seventh wave”, which can appear out of nowhere from a calm sea. (博主註: 每年五名岸邊挖狗爪螺者被捲入浪裡淹死)

Even where the isolated coves do shelter fine beaches, you will rarely find resort facilities. While the beaches may look splendid, braving the water is recommended for only the strongest of swimmers, and the climate is significantly wetter and windier here than it is a mere 100km or so further south.

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以下轉載自:https://webgate.ec.europa.eu/fpfis/cms/farnet2/on-the-ground/flag-factsheets/costa-da-morte_en

The name of the coastal area of Costa da Morte (“Coast of Death”) refers to its partly rough and rocky shoreline. In between, the coastline which offers attractive beaches and areas of high environmental value.

The FLAG (Fisheries Areas Network, EU) has twelve small harbours which generate crucial employment for their immediate surroundings. Almost 300 small-scale fishing boats sell their catches at one of the seven auctions. Daily landings ensure the supply of high quality fish and seafood products. The canning industry is the only processing activity in the FLAGs territory.

In general, the area and especially small cities such as Camarinas, Malpice and Muxia struggle with high unemployment rates due to a lack of (quality) jobs, leading to a high number of young educated people leaving the region. This also leads to a decline and aging of the overall population.

Thanks to the geography of the area, which has many beaches with fine sand and several protected areas, tourism has emerged as an alternative to the decline of traditional industries. However, there is no common approach to fully tap into this opportunity because of a shortage of knowledge and services within this sector.

Central Asia's Looming Conflict Over Water

轉載自: https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/central-asias-looming-conflict-over-water-part-1-upriver-countries

Summary

Two of Central Asia's poorest countries, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, are attempting to leverage one of their few geographic advantages — control over the headwaters of two major regional rivers — to build new hydropower dams. The proposed dams, which were originally drawn up by the Soviet Union in the 1970s and 1980s, offer the prospect of boosting electricity production both for domestic use and potentially for export to neighboring states.

Financing for the dams has not yet been secured, though Russia has periodically offered some assistance to each country. However, if the projects do proceed, the already tense relations are likely to become even more fraught between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and their richer downriver neighbors, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, which depend on the rivers' waters. While military confrontations are unlikely in the near term, any developments that jeopardize the downriver countries' water supply could prompt a harsh response.

Under the Soviet Union, Central Asia was split into five Soviet republics. All administrative matters in these republics were decided by Moscow, including how the individual republics used and distributed their natural resources. When the Soviet Union dissolved in December 1991, the former republics (now independent states) kept their Soviet-imposed borders, even though they were explicitly designed by Moscow to keep any one state from becoming powerful or independent enough to challenge the Kremlin's central authority. Consequently, these countries are dependent on one another for their natural resources and energy needs, which is a challenge now that each individual country, rather than Moscow, is responsible for managing those resources.

Resource Competition in Central Asia

Portions of the Central Asian steppe — especially Uzbekistan — were endowed with fertile soil and favorable weather patterns, making them well suited for agriculture, though the arid land requires irrigation. To create agricultural zones and provide sufficient water for other uses in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, the Soviet Union constructed extensive irrigation networks to redirect water from Central Asia's two largest rivers, the Syr Darya originating in Tajikistan and the Amu Darya originating in Kyrgyzstan.

Water diversion measures combined with inefficient infrastructure and general overuse have caused the rivers' drainage point, the Aral Sea, to lose about 75 percent of its water volume since the 1960s and become increasingly saline. This has reduced the sea's ability to provide a moderating effect on temperatures and has resulted in the desertification of the surrounding areas. Considering the increasing demand on and the possible reduction of the rivers' glacial sources, the already-strained water situation in the region looks set to grow tenser in the coming years.

This is the context under which Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan hope to build two new hydropower plants that could further reduce the water flow to downriver countries. Bishkek and Dushanbe want the power plants to expand their electrical production capacity, which could lessen their energy dependence on downstream countries, especially natural gas from Uzbekistan. These projects could eventually even allow the countries to export excess energy to China, Afghanistan and Pakistan if the necessary infrastructure is built, which would be extremely valuable for the two historically poor countries.

Proposed Hydroelectric Projects

Kyrgyzstan's proposed Kambarata-1 hydropower plant would be built on the Naryn River, a tributary of the Syr Darya, while Tajikistan's proposed Rogun hydropower plant would be built on the Vakhsh River, a tributary of the Amu Darya. These are two of the largest hydroelectric projects ever planned in Central Asia, with potential generating capacities of 1,900 megawatts and 3,600 megawatts, respectively.

Kambarata-1 and Rogun were designed by the Soviets to improve water management in Central Asia. Two significant sources of the region's river water are snowmelt and glacial thaw, and thus the flow slows in the winter months while becoming more rapid when temperatures heat up in the summer. Kambarata-1 and Rogun are designed to be able to better control the fluctuation of water flow by retaining water in reservoirs and releasing it when it is most needed. But this introduces competing goals for reservoir use: While the downriver areas need more water in the summer to irrigate their crops, the upriver regions require more water in the winter to generate hydroelectricity.

Both proposed dam projects have received external funding to carry out feasibility studies, but the estimated high costs of the dams make it impossible for Dushanbe and Bishkek to pay for them on their own. Kambarata-1 will cost an estimated $2-4 billion, while Rogun is projected at $2-3 billion. Considering Kyrgystan's gross domestic product was $5.9 billion in 2011 and Tajikistan's was $6.5 billion, foreign investment will be essential for the projects. Russia has proposed creating a joint-stock company with Kyrgyzstan to build Kambarata-1 and also paid for its feasibility study. But while Kyrgyz President Almaz Atambayev said construction would begin by spring 2013, the funding needed to begin, much less complete, the project has yet to materialize.

In the past, Russia has backed out on promises to fund such projects in Central Asia. At the end of 2004, Russian aluminum company RUSAL expressed interest in finishing construction of Tajikistan's Rogun hydropower plant, which the Soviets had begun in 1976 but never completed. RUSAL pulled out of the project, ostensibly over disagreements regarding the design of the dam and how much electricity should be allocated for residential versus industrial use. The actual reason for the withdrawal, however, was that Russia did not want to seriously provoke Uzbekistan by building a hydropower plant of such size.

Since then, however, the project has been revived. Projected to become the world's tallest dam if it is built to Tajikistan's specifications, Rogun is currently undergoing its second feasibility study, funded by the World Bank. The Tajik government raised less than $200 million for the project by forcing citizens to buy shares in it. But the rest of the $2 billion needed to build the project will likely have to come from foreign investment. Whether the funding for either dam comes from Russia will likely depend on how far the Kremlin feels it can push Uzbekistan rather than how interested it is in being a stakeholder in these two hydroelectric power plants.

While neither project will likely be completed in the near future, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan have all expressed their concerns about how these new hydropower dams could affect them. These countries are worried that if the dams are built, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will hoard water in reservoirs during the summer months (when the downriver agricultural regions need it most) so the upriver countries can release it in the winter to generate hydroelectric power.

If the Rogun dam were to be built, it could affect the Vakhsh River's water flow — but this impact would likely not be felt for years. Some estimates indicate it could take more than a decade to fill Rogun's reservoir, during which time the river would probably only experience an estimated 1-2 percent reduction in its water flow, with less water lost the slower it is filled. Once the reservoir is filled, however, downriver countries could expect a worst-case scenario (where the dam is generating full electricity) of an estimated 18 percent reduction in water flow during the summer months and an estimated 54 percent increase in water flow in the winter, which could cause flooding downriver depending on how Tajikistan decides to control the timing of water release.

While dam-related variations in water flow are unlikely to become an issue in the near future, since the completion of these projects is many years off, the three downstream countries have already expressed their hostility to the projects. If the two hydroelectric power plants come closer to fruition, economic and political tensions between the upriver and downriver countries would almost certainly escalate. Uzbekistan in particular is capable of cutting off natural gas exports to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Military confrontations, while unlikely, could not be ruled out since a dramatic decline in water supplies could force the downriver countries to respond as a matter of national security. This could risk inviting retaliation from larger powers like Russia, which has extensive economic and security interests in Central Asia and wants to prevent any of the countries there, particularly Uzbekistan, from emerging as a regional hegemon.

Looking Ahead

The likelihood that Kambarata-1 or Rogun will be built is contingent on each project acquiring the foreign financing that Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are seeking. If either project receives the necessary funding, Bishkek and Dushanbe are still years away from developing a substantial hydropower industry. Still, tensions in the region over water supplies will likely continue to escalate, especially if downriver countries perceive a serious and imminent threat to their water supplies.

Central Asia's Looming Conflict Over Water, Part 2: The Downriver Countries

轉載自: https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/central-asias-looming-conflict-over-water-part-2-downriver-countries

Summary

Even before Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan began their recent push to build hydroelectric dams along Central Asia's two main rivers, downriver countries were coping with water scarcity challenges caused by increased demand and inefficient agricultural practices. Adjusting irrigation techniques in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan could partially mitigate these problems, but political and economic difficulties in these countries — especially the latter two — appear likely to stymie any progress. The persistence of water competition in Central Asia has already increased regional tensions and could eventually escalate to armed conflict if the situation goes unaddressed.

Shared but limited water resources are always potential catalysts for regional disputes, especially if those resources are mismanaged. However, the developing conflict involving the Aral Sea basin is unique due to its relatively recent emergence since the fall of the Soviet Union — an event that left Central Asian countries to resolve such issues on their own without mandates from Moscow for the first time in nearly a century.

Origins of the Scarcity Issue

During the Soviet era, the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya rivers, which feed into the Aral Sea, were tapped for irrigation. The two rivers are sourced largely from snowmelt and glacial thaw in the mountains of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, keeping flows from the rivers' headwaters relatively consistent over the past 50 years. However, large-scale irrigation schemes geared toward cotton production have prevented water from reaching the Aral Sea, causing its volume to decrease by about 75 percent since the 1960s.

The future appears even more uncertain. Reliable environmental information about the region is difficult to acquire, since many monitoring stations fell into disrepair after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Still, there appears to be consensus that temperatures in the region are rising slightly, a change that could cause the glaciers to melt at a faster rate than previously recorded and reduce the annual average river flow by 15 percent or more by 2050.
While it is impossible to know with any certainty whether the glaciers will retreat as predicted, demand from downstream countries is projected to increase. Agriculture — the sector that consumes the most water — continues to use inefficient irrigation methods; more than 50 percent of allocated water is lost to evaporation or seepage into the ground in improperly lined irrigation canals.

Despite ongoing concerns about water scarcity, agriculture remains an important part of the economies of downstream states. Uzbekistan, in particular, depends heavily on continued cotton production. The country is one of the world's top 10 cotton exporters and the crop is one of Uzbekistan's largest sources of revenue from exports. Uzbekistan uses more water from the Aral Sea basin for irrigation than any other country in Central Asia, directing it mainly to the Fergana Valley. However, this area is particularly vulnerable to strife because its borders are arranged in a way that exacerbates the region's numerous ethnic and clan divisions — another legacy of the Soviet era. 

In Turkmenistan, the Mary clan, which dominates agriculture and the illicit drug trade along the Karakum canal, has no official role in the government, and a decline in water supply could embolden them to pressure Ashgabat. To a certain extent, all Central Asian countries deal with ethnic discord, and their stability is highly dependent on maintaining or expanding water access. Consequently, these countries have an interest in finding ways to reverse their bleak resource outlook. 

Options for Modernizing Water Use 

Regardless of whether Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are able to build their proposed hydroelectric dam projects, downriver countries will have some ability to mitigate water issues through the improvement of irrigation systems. Currently, the region's irrigation and canal systems are extremely inefficient and in need of maintenance, which has been lacking in both Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Additionally, improper use of irrigation has led to increased salinity in the ground, which decreases the quality of the soil and can lower crop yields. 

Some potential irrigation improvements include lining canals and ditches with concrete or newer synthetic materials, repairing or replacing Soviet-era equipment and implementing techniques such as drip irrigation. Each of these methods could decrease water usage. Though highly unlikely given cotton's economic importance to Uzbekistan, the region could also switch from cotton to crops that require less water.

Irrigated Land in Central Asia

However, the political and economic situations in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan could prevent widespread improvement in the water distribution system. Improvements to the system would likely require both foreign funding and foreign expertise to implement. Due in part to their hydrocarbon reserves, the downriver countries are richer than Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, but they are still quite poor by Western standards. The projected costs of even a partial rehabilitation of water pumping stations, meanwhile, could be well into the hundreds of millions of dollars. At roughly $1,400 per hectare, the estimated cost of implementing drip irrigation in more than 4 million hectares of irrigated land in Uzbekistan would exceed $5 billion. Uzbekistan's annual gross domestic product was $45 billion and Turkmenistan's was $24 billion in 2011, so the countries would probably need outside assistance.

While there are several international water system initiatives in various stages of approval, including proposed projects sponsored by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, it remains unclear whether any of these projects will ever be implemented. Uzbekistan, which continues to receive Western criticism for child labor practices in its agriculture sector (among other issues), remains relatively closed to foreign investment and involvement. Some reports in the past year have indicated that China may be interested in investing in Uzbekistan, and Beijing's investment may well be more welcome than that of any Western partners.

Turkmenistan has a much smaller population to support than Uzbekistan, making improvements to its water usage system a somewhat less pressing concern. Still, the Turkmen government is likely to continue trying to appease the Mary clan in its main agricultural area to avoid prompting the kind of ethnic backlash that could jeopardize political stability.

Kazakhstan is in a slightly better position than the other two downriver countries. Because it is more open to outside assistance and has more money at its disposal, the country — in cooperation with the World Bank — has been able to launch a rehabilitation project for the Aral Sea. Under the first phase of the project, Kazakhstan completed the Kokaral dam in 2005, allowing a northern portion of the Aral Sea to be partially restored and small-scale fishing to resume. The second phase calls for the construction of another dam and the rehabilitation of other irrigation schemes along the Syr Darya.

Despite Kazakhstan's limited progress and the numerous proposed development projects of the region, comprehensive action to improve the regional irrigation situation appears to have stalled. While improvements to the efficiency of the system are possible, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, two of the three largest water users, appear unable or unwilling to pursue the kinds of measures that could mitigate a water crisis. Thus, as these countries compete for a limited and potentially shrinking resource, tensions are likely to rise and could eventually boil over into a military confrontation should the threats to their water supply become sufficiently dire.

Controversial Dam Proposals in Central Asia  

https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/controversial-dam-proposals-central-asia

Two of Central Asia's poorest countries, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, are attempting to leverage one of their few geographic advantages — control over the headwaters of two major regional rivers — to build new hydropower dams. The proposed dams offer the prospect of boosting electricity production, which could lessen the two countries' energy dependence on their richer downstream neighbors, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. The projects could eventually even allow Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to export excess energy to China, Afghanistan and Pakistan if the necessary infrastructure is built, which would be extremely valuable for the two historically poor countries. However, the new dams could also reduce water flow to the downstream countries at a time when water resources in the region are already strained due to water diversion measures, inefficient infrastructure and general overuse. Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are concerned that if the dams are built, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will hoard water in reservoirs during the summer months (when the downriver agricultural regions need it most) in order to release it during the winter to generate hydroelectric power. Financing for the hydropower dams has not yet been secured, but if the projects do proceed, tensions between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and their downriver neighbors are likely to increase. Though military confrontations are unlikely in the near term, any developments that jeopardize the downriver countries' water supply could prompt a harsh response.