2018年1月12日 星期五

Central Asia's Looming Conflict Over Water

轉載自: https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/central-asias-looming-conflict-over-water-part-1-upriver-countries

Summary

Two of Central Asia's poorest countries, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, are attempting to leverage one of their few geographic advantages — control over the headwaters of two major regional rivers — to build new hydropower dams. The proposed dams, which were originally drawn up by the Soviet Union in the 1970s and 1980s, offer the prospect of boosting electricity production both for domestic use and potentially for export to neighboring states.

Financing for the dams has not yet been secured, though Russia has periodically offered some assistance to each country. However, if the projects do proceed, the already tense relations are likely to become even more fraught between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and their richer downriver neighbors, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, which depend on the rivers' waters. While military confrontations are unlikely in the near term, any developments that jeopardize the downriver countries' water supply could prompt a harsh response.

Under the Soviet Union, Central Asia was split into five Soviet republics. All administrative matters in these republics were decided by Moscow, including how the individual republics used and distributed their natural resources. When the Soviet Union dissolved in December 1991, the former republics (now independent states) kept their Soviet-imposed borders, even though they were explicitly designed by Moscow to keep any one state from becoming powerful or independent enough to challenge the Kremlin's central authority. Consequently, these countries are dependent on one another for their natural resources and energy needs, which is a challenge now that each individual country, rather than Moscow, is responsible for managing those resources.

Resource Competition in Central Asia

Portions of the Central Asian steppe — especially Uzbekistan — were endowed with fertile soil and favorable weather patterns, making them well suited for agriculture, though the arid land requires irrigation. To create agricultural zones and provide sufficient water for other uses in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, the Soviet Union constructed extensive irrigation networks to redirect water from Central Asia's two largest rivers, the Syr Darya originating in Tajikistan and the Amu Darya originating in Kyrgyzstan.

Water diversion measures combined with inefficient infrastructure and general overuse have caused the rivers' drainage point, the Aral Sea, to lose about 75 percent of its water volume since the 1960s and become increasingly saline. This has reduced the sea's ability to provide a moderating effect on temperatures and has resulted in the desertification of the surrounding areas. Considering the increasing demand on and the possible reduction of the rivers' glacial sources, the already-strained water situation in the region looks set to grow tenser in the coming years.

This is the context under which Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan hope to build two new hydropower plants that could further reduce the water flow to downriver countries. Bishkek and Dushanbe want the power plants to expand their electrical production capacity, which could lessen their energy dependence on downstream countries, especially natural gas from Uzbekistan. These projects could eventually even allow the countries to export excess energy to China, Afghanistan and Pakistan if the necessary infrastructure is built, which would be extremely valuable for the two historically poor countries.

Proposed Hydroelectric Projects

Kyrgyzstan's proposed Kambarata-1 hydropower plant would be built on the Naryn River, a tributary of the Syr Darya, while Tajikistan's proposed Rogun hydropower plant would be built on the Vakhsh River, a tributary of the Amu Darya. These are two of the largest hydroelectric projects ever planned in Central Asia, with potential generating capacities of 1,900 megawatts and 3,600 megawatts, respectively.

Kambarata-1 and Rogun were designed by the Soviets to improve water management in Central Asia. Two significant sources of the region's river water are snowmelt and glacial thaw, and thus the flow slows in the winter months while becoming more rapid when temperatures heat up in the summer. Kambarata-1 and Rogun are designed to be able to better control the fluctuation of water flow by retaining water in reservoirs and releasing it when it is most needed. But this introduces competing goals for reservoir use: While the downriver areas need more water in the summer to irrigate their crops, the upriver regions require more water in the winter to generate hydroelectricity.

Both proposed dam projects have received external funding to carry out feasibility studies, but the estimated high costs of the dams make it impossible for Dushanbe and Bishkek to pay for them on their own. Kambarata-1 will cost an estimated $2-4 billion, while Rogun is projected at $2-3 billion. Considering Kyrgystan's gross domestic product was $5.9 billion in 2011 and Tajikistan's was $6.5 billion, foreign investment will be essential for the projects. Russia has proposed creating a joint-stock company with Kyrgyzstan to build Kambarata-1 and also paid for its feasibility study. But while Kyrgyz President Almaz Atambayev said construction would begin by spring 2013, the funding needed to begin, much less complete, the project has yet to materialize.


In the past, Russia has backed out on promises to fund such projects in Central Asia. At the end of 2004, Russian aluminum company RUSAL expressed interest in finishing construction of Tajikistan's Rogun hydropower plant, which the Soviets had begun in 1976 but never completed. RUSAL pulled out of the project, ostensibly over disagreements regarding the design of the dam and how much electricity should be allocated for residential versus industrial use. The actual reason for the withdrawal, however, was that Russia did not want to seriously provoke Uzbekistan by building a hydropower plant of such size.

Since then, however, the project has been revived. Projected to become the world's tallest dam if it is built to Tajikistan's specifications, Rogun is currently undergoing its second feasibility study, funded by the World Bank. The Tajik government raised less than $200 million for the project by forcing citizens to buy shares in it. But the rest of the $2 billion needed to build the project will likely have to come from foreign investment. Whether the funding for either dam comes from Russia will likely depend on how far the Kremlin feels it can push Uzbekistan rather than how interested it is in being a stakeholder in these two hydroelectric power plants.

While neither project will likely be completed in the near future, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan have all expressed their concerns about how these new hydropower dams could affect them. These countries are worried that if the dams are built, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will hoard water in reservoirs during the summer months (when the downriver agricultural regions need it most) so the upriver countries can release it in the winter to generate hydroelectric power.

If the Rogun dam were to be built, it could affect the Vakhsh River's water flow — but this impact would likely not be felt for years. Some estimates indicate it could take more than a decade to fill Rogun's reservoir, during which time the river would probably only experience an estimated 1-2 percent reduction in its water flow, with less water lost the slower it is filled. Once the reservoir is filled, however, downriver countries could expect a worst-case scenario (where the dam is generating full electricity) of an estimated 18 percent reduction in water flow during the summer months and an estimated 54 percent increase in water flow in the winter, which could cause flooding downriver depending on how Tajikistan decides to control the timing of water release.

While dam-related variations in water flow are unlikely to become an issue in the near future, since the completion of these projects is many years off, the three downstream countries have already expressed their hostility to the projects. If the two hydroelectric power plants come closer to fruition, economic and political tensions between the upriver and downriver countries would almost certainly escalate. Uzbekistan in particular is capable of cutting off natural gas exports to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Military confrontations, while unlikely, could not be ruled out since a dramatic decline in water supplies could force the downriver countries to respond as a matter of national security. This could risk inviting retaliation from larger powers like Russia, which has extensive economic and security interests in Central Asia and wants to prevent any of the countries there, particularly Uzbekistan, from emerging as a regional hegemon.

Looking Ahead

The likelihood that Kambarata-1 or Rogun will be built is contingent on each project acquiring the foreign financing that Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are seeking. If either project receives the necessary funding, Bishkek and Dushanbe are still years away from developing a substantial hydropower industry. Still, tensions in the region over water supplies will likely continue to escalate, especially if downriver countries perceive a serious and imminent threat to their water supplies.

Central Asia's Looming Conflict Over Water, Part 2: The Downriver Countries

轉載自: https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/central-asias-looming-conflict-over-water-part-2-downriver-countries

Summary

Even before Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan began their recent push to build hydroelectric dams along Central Asia's two main rivers, downriver countries were coping with water scarcity challenges caused by increased demand and inefficient agricultural practices. Adjusting irrigation techniques in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan could partially mitigate these problems, but political and economic difficulties in these countries — especially the latter two — appear likely to stymie any progress. The persistence of water competition in Central Asia has already increased regional tensions and could eventually escalate to armed conflict if the situation goes unaddressed.

Shared but limited water resources are always potential catalysts for regional disputes, especially if those resources are mismanaged. However, the developing conflict involving the Aral Sea basin is unique due to its relatively recent emergence since the fall of the Soviet Union — an event that left Central Asian countries to resolve such issues on their own without mandates from Moscow for the first time in nearly a century.

Origins of the Scarcity Issue

During the Soviet era, the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya rivers, which feed into the Aral Sea, were tapped for irrigation. The two rivers are sourced largely from snowmelt and glacial thaw in the mountains of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, keeping flows from the rivers' headwaters relatively consistent over the past 50 years. However, large-scale irrigation schemes geared toward cotton production have prevented water from reaching the Aral Sea, causing its volume to decrease by about 75 percent since the 1960s.

The future appears even more uncertain. Reliable environmental information about the region is difficult to acquire, since many monitoring stations fell into disrepair after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Still, there appears to be consensus that temperatures in the region are rising slightly, a change that could cause the glaciers to melt at a faster rate than previously recorded and reduce the annual average river flow by 15 percent or more by 2050.
While it is impossible to know with any certainty whether the glaciers will retreat as predicted, demand from downstream countries is projected to increase. Agriculture — the sector that consumes the most water — continues to use inefficient irrigation methods; more than 50 percent of allocated water is lost to evaporation or seepage into the ground in improperly lined irrigation canals.

Despite ongoing concerns about water scarcity, agriculture remains an important part of the economies of downstream states. Uzbekistan, in particular, depends heavily on continued cotton production. The country is one of the world's top 10 cotton exporters and the crop is one of Uzbekistan's largest sources of revenue from exports. Uzbekistan uses more water from the Aral Sea basin for irrigation than any other country in Central Asia, directing it mainly to the Fergana Valley. However, this area is particularly vulnerable to strife because its borders are arranged in a way that exacerbates the region's numerous ethnic and clan divisions — another legacy of the Soviet era. 

In Turkmenistan, the Mary clan, which dominates agriculture and the illicit drug trade along the Karakum canal, has no official role in the government, and a decline in water supply could embolden them to pressure Ashgabat. To a certain extent, all Central Asian countries deal with ethnic discord, and their stability is highly dependent on maintaining or expanding water access. Consequently, these countries have an interest in finding ways to reverse their bleak resource outlook. 

Options for Modernizing Water Use 

Regardless of whether Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are able to build their proposed hydroelectric dam projects, downriver countries will have some ability to mitigate water issues through the improvement of irrigation systems. Currently, the region's irrigation and canal systems are extremely inefficient and in need of maintenance, which has been lacking in both Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Additionally, improper use of irrigation has led to increased salinity in the ground, which decreases the quality of the soil and can lower crop yields. 

Some potential irrigation improvements include lining canals and ditches with concrete or newer synthetic materials, repairing or replacing Soviet-era equipment and implementing techniques such as drip irrigation. Each of these methods could decrease water usage. Though highly unlikely given cotton's economic importance to Uzbekistan, the region could also switch from cotton to crops that require less water.


Irrigated Land in Central Asia


However, the political and economic situations in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan could prevent widespread improvement in the water distribution system. Improvements to the system would likely require both foreign funding and foreign expertise to implement. Due in part to their hydrocarbon reserves, the downriver countries are richer than Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, but they are still quite poor by Western standards. The projected costs of even a partial rehabilitation of water pumping stations, meanwhile, could be well into the hundreds of millions of dollars. At roughly $1,400 per hectare, the estimated cost of implementing drip irrigation in more than 4 million hectares of irrigated land in Uzbekistan would exceed $5 billion. Uzbekistan's annual gross domestic product was $45 billion and Turkmenistan's was $24 billion in 2011, so the countries would probably need outside assistance.

While there are several international water system initiatives in various stages of approval, including proposed projects sponsored by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, it remains unclear whether any of these projects will ever be implemented. Uzbekistan, which continues to receive Western criticism for child labor practices in its agriculture sector (among other issues), remains relatively closed to foreign investment and involvement. Some reports in the past year have indicated that China may be interested in investing in Uzbekistan, and Beijing's investment may well be more welcome than that of any Western partners.

Turkmenistan has a much smaller population to support than Uzbekistan, making improvements to its water usage system a somewhat less pressing concern. Still, the Turkmen government is likely to continue trying to appease the Mary clan in its main agricultural area to avoid prompting the kind of ethnic backlash that could jeopardize political stability.

Kazakhstan is in a slightly better position than the other two downriver countries. Because it is more open to outside assistance and has more money at its disposal, the country — in cooperation with the World Bank — has been able to launch a rehabilitation project for the Aral Sea. Under the first phase of the project, Kazakhstan completed the Kokaral dam in 2005, allowing a northern portion of the Aral Sea to be partially restored and small-scale fishing to resume. The second phase calls for the construction of another dam and the rehabilitation of other irrigation schemes along the Syr Darya.

Despite Kazakhstan's limited progress and the numerous proposed development projects of the region, comprehensive action to improve the regional irrigation situation appears to have stalled. While improvements to the efficiency of the system are possible, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, two of the three largest water users, appear unable or unwilling to pursue the kinds of measures that could mitigate a water crisis. Thus, as these countries compete for a limited and potentially shrinking resource, tensions are likely to rise and could eventually boil over into a military confrontation should the threats to their water supply become sufficiently dire.




Controversial Dam Proposals in Central Asia  

https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/controversial-dam-proposals-central-asia

Two of Central Asia's poorest countries, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, are attempting to leverage one of their few geographic advantages — control over the headwaters of two major regional rivers — to build new hydropower dams. The proposed dams offer the prospect of boosting electricity production, which could lessen the two countries' energy dependence on their richer downstream neighbors, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. The projects could eventually even allow Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to export excess energy to China, Afghanistan and Pakistan if the necessary infrastructure is built, which would be extremely valuable for the two historically poor countries. However, the new dams could also reduce water flow to the downstream countries at a time when water resources in the region are already strained due to water diversion measures, inefficient infrastructure and general overuse. Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are concerned that if the dams are built, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will hoard water in reservoirs during the summer months (when the downriver agricultural regions need it most) in order to release it during the winter to generate hydroelectric power. Financing for the hydropower dams has not yet been secured, but if the projects do proceed, tensions between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and their downriver neighbors are likely to increase. Though military confrontations are unlikely in the near term, any developments that jeopardize the downriver countries' water supply could prompt a harsh response.

2018年1月11日 星期四

阿爾及利亞: A Desert Nation Fighting to Maintain Water Supplies

Algeria: A Desert Nation Fighting to Maintain Water Supplies


Considering that the Sahara Desert covers most of Algeria, it comes as no surprise that the country is a water-scarce nation. Beyond the severity of its climate and geography, however, overexploitation is degrading Algeria's naturally available water resources to an alarming extent. To support a growing and rapidly urbanizing population, Algiers hopes to employ technological solutions to maximize the country's limited water supplies.

Desalination plants and large water conveyance projects involving tunneling, channeling and pipelines offer a potential fix, but there will be an associated increase in production costs. Water infrastructure maintenance will also become more expensive as a result. Low oil prices, coupled with the political need to maintain social spending ahead of a transition of government, are straining the Algerian budget. As a result, public-private partnerships are vital to assuring — if not improving — access to water throughout the country.

Algeria's per capita water availability is less than 300 cubic meters per year, which puts the country well below the threshold for the U.N. definition of water poverty. By comparison, Mexico's per capita water availability is roughly 3,700 cubic meters per year, and Egypt's is approximately 700 cubic meters per year.

It doesn't help that Algeria's water is unevenly distributed. Most of the country's surface water resources, in the form of rivers and lakes, are concentrated in the country's north, along with the bulk of Algeria's population. Desalination production accounted for approximately 7 percent of water consumed in 2012, but this still favors the north, which has access to the limited shoreline. Growing desalination capacity has helped increase water availability in the coastal cities, but as much as 30 percent of general supply is lost as it is distributed through Algeria's aging, leaking water transportation infrastructure. Many citizens simply do not have daily access to running water.

There is water in the sparsely populated central and southern parts of the country, but it is primarily groundwater — and it is at risk. Not only are the aquifers beneath Algeria's desert very slow to recharge, the non-renewable water drawn from them is sometimes called fossil water because it has sat undisturbed in the aquifers for millennia. As well as suffering from declining quality — increased salinity, nitrate contamination — the slowly draining aquifers have resulted in dry wells in some regions. Algerian groundwater withdrawals are roughly double the annual recharge rate: Approximately 3 billion cubic meters are withdrawn, but only 1.5 billion cubic meters are renewed each year. And the problem is spreading: Even aquifers farther north, on the Moroccan border near the Mediterranean, are showing signs of diminishing quantity and quality.




The vast Northwestern Sahara Aquifer System that lies beneath most of Algeria's interior is already showing signs of decline. Exploitation of the aquifer has increased significantly over the past several decades, and withdrawals now are estimated to be more than 2.5 billion cubic meters per year. Recharge rates, however, are only estimated at around 1 billion cubic meters per year. Unfortunately for Algeria, withdrawals from this aquifer system will only increase, contributing to the decline of water supplies and quality overall. In 2006, the government attempted to enumerate the amount of wells and boreholes in the nation's aquifer systems to get a better idea of how much water was being extracted. Algiers hopes to regulate usage more effectively, but illegal drilling — potentially in the order of tens of thousands of illegal boreholes — has made estimating and regulating water use nearly impossible. Because of overexploitation and illegal drilling, wells have to be drilled deeper, which raises the cost of access and contributes to environmental damage.


As Algeria's population grows and urbanizes, less water will be available per person. In the 1960s, Algeria's annual per capita availability was more than 1,000 cubic meters. Now it is 292 cubic meters. In contrast to availability, the volume of pumped water increased by 525 percent over the second half of the 20th century. Algeria's annual water consumption is now approximately 67 percent of its renewable resources, or about 8.4 billion cubic meters out of 11.7 billion cubic meters. By comparison, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan — both energy-producing countries with per capita GDPs comparable to Algeria's — consume 113 percent and 35 percent of their total renewable water resources respectively. Both countries also have much higher per capita water availability than Algeria does.

Algeria's Expensive Water Strategy

Algiers' water management strategy focuses on making the most of existing water resources through redistribution, increased storage capacity and enhanced desalination capacity. The Algerian water distribution network stretches more than 58,000 kilometers (roughly 36,000 miles) and can move over 3 billion cubic meters of water per year. In terms of storage, there are already more than 70 large dams in Algeria, but increasing storage capacity is an important part of the capital's water strategy. When it comes to desalination production capacity, growth has skyrocketed from less than 50,000 cubic meters per day in 2002 to more than 2 million cubic meters per day in 2015. The Magtaa plant, which began operations in 2014, has a capacity of half a million cubic meters per day — enough to provide adequate drinking water for 5 million citizens. There are plans to expand desalination capacity for seawater and brackish groundwater in the near future.

For a country with some of the lowest water prices in the region, Algeria relies heavily on expensive water management solutions. Even with recent revisions to the water pricing system, the cost of water is so low that it does not encourage conservation. In fact, prices do not even cover production and maintenance costs, let alone treatment of wastewater. Moving a comparatively heavily liquid such as water from its point of origin to point of consumption entails significant costs, both for the initial construction of the infrastructure and for operations and maintenance thereafter. A large-scale transfer project to move water from Ain Salah to Tamanrasset (completed in 2011) cost roughly $2.5 billion, not including the ongoing operation and maintenance expenses. Desalination operations are even more energy intensive and costly than water conveyance. Water produced at desalination plants in the Arab region costs between 50 cents and 60 cents per cubic meter — compared to around 5 cents per cubic meter for groundwater, and 20-50 cents per cubic meter for surface water. Although energy is a factor in the higher price of water from desalination plants, more than half of the cost is attributed to factors other than energy, such as labor and chemicals.

Without investment from the government — not just in big nameplate projects but also in routine maintenance and efforts to improve efficiency and regulation — the availability and quality of Algeria's water supply will keep declining. However, the government cannot foot the bill alone. Private investment will be necessary to safeguard the country's water supply. Public-private partnerships in the water sector are partly responsible for the recent surge in desalination capacity. In addition, private organizations are responsible for water management in some of the country's largest cities, including Algiers, Annaba, Oran and Constantine.

Algeria's 2015-2019 Development Plan earmarked nearly $18 billion for water infrastructure projects. But throughout 2015 and into 2016, low oil prices have put a burden on the government's budget. Algiers' top spending priority will be security services, especially for energy assets. Furthermore, the country has a history of using social spending to quell civil unrest. President Abdel Aziz Bouteflika used public spending campaigns to fend off protests after the Arab Spring brought down other leaders in the region. Even with low oil prices straining Algiers' finances, the government is more likely to spend its reserves on subsidies than risk unrest. Whatever government takes power following the upcoming transition, it will likely continue with that strategy because Algiers and the populace remain wary of political unrest, a legacy of the country's decadelong civil war (1991-2002).

Water's Role in Algeria's Future

Because oil prices are expected to remain low for a while, Algiers is searching for new sources of revenue. Algeria's vast potential shale reserves are one such source. However, water security was a common theme during recent protests regarding shale extraction, and concerns about water scarcity could hinder the development of Algerian shale over the next five to seven years. Technological solutions that limit or eliminate water's role in hydraulic fracturing could allow Algeria to exploit its shale reserves in the long term, although given the protest culture of the country and region, demonstrations against hydraulic fracturing could still occur even if water use is addressed.

There is little doubt that water is part of a circle of causation and control: It remains a key factor in keeping Algeria's security situation manageable, which is vital to keeping the country attractive to foreign investment, which in turn is crucial to maintaining the water supply. The protest culture in Algeria means that subsidies that benefit the population cannot be rolled back easily. Therefore, water prices will remain low and foreign investment will still be needed to maintain or improve Algerians' access to water.

Climate changes — specifically, higher temperatures and less rain — are predicted for the coming decades in Algeria and the wider region. At the same time, the population is expanding and urbanizing, consuming more water than ever before. This adds to the stress on the country's already scarce water resources. Greater desalination capacity, improvements to existing infrastructure and additional water conveyance projects — created through cooperation between the public and private sectors — could alleviate some supply concerns, especially in urban areas. But, if short-term budgetary problems lead Algiers to neglect the country's water infrastructure, the longer-term implications are dire. Declining quality, infrequent availability or more dependence on expensive water from desalination plants will contribute to the potential for social unrest. As overexploitation creates more obvious environmental degradation and further reduces water supplies, dissent will become a greater threat to the government.

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Algeria's Expensive Water Problem  

轉載自:  https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/algerias-expensive-water-problem




Algeria's per capita water availability is less than 300 cubic meters per year, which is well below the threshold for the U.N. definition of water poverty. Many citizens simply do not have daily access to running water. The country's water is also unevenly distributed, with most of its surface water resources concentrated in the north, along with the bulk of its population.

There is water in the sparsely populated central and southern parts of the country, but it is primarily groundwater — and it is at risk. Not only are the aquifers beneath Algeria's desert very slow to recharge, the non-renewable water drawn from them is sometimes called fossil water because it has sat undisturbed in the aquifers for millennia. Algerian groundwater withdrawals are roughly double the annual recharge rate, and the problem is spreading: Even aquifers farther north are showing signs of diminishing quantity and quality.

Algiers' water management strategy focuses on making the most of existing water resources through redistribution, increased storage capacity and enhanced desalination capacity. But for a country with some of the lowest water prices in the region, Algeria relies heavily on expensive water management solutions. Without government investment, the availability and quality of Algeria's water supply will continue to decline. However, the government cannot foot the bill alone — private investment will be necessary to safeguard the country's water supply.

Climate changes — specifically, higher temperatures and less rain — are predicted for the coming decades in Algeria and the wider region. At the same time, the population is expanding and urbanizing, consuming more water than ever before. Greater desalination capacity, improvements to existing infrastructure and additional water conveyance projects — created through cooperation between the public and private sectors — could alleviate some supply concerns, especially in urban areas. But, if short-term budgetary problems lead Algiers to neglect the country's water infrastructure, the longer-term implications are dire. Declining quality, infrequent availability or more dependence on expensive water from desalination plants will contribute to the potential for social unrest.

澳大利亚光伏市场及政策简析

澳大利亚光伏市场及政策简析

2018-01-04  PV兔子 

在此前的推文中,针对东南亚的一些热门国家的光伏政策进行过相关的介绍,主要是考虑其靠近中国的地理优势而言。而针对其他发展光伏的优质国家,由于其良好的当地政府信誉,及其较为丰富的太阳辐照资源,这些国家也越来越受到光伏投资企业的关注。本文将针对澳大利亚光伏市场及其政策进行简要的介绍。
能源结构及光伏市场现状
根据澳大利亚政府环境和能源部的统计数字,2016年澳大利亚的发电量中仍有62.9%来自煤电,18.5%天然气发电,2.3%为燃油发电,可再生能源比例为16.2%(其中6.9%水电、5%风电、2.7%屋顶光伏)。具体结构比例及发展情况请见下图。
截止至目前,根据澳大利亚光伏研究所(APVI)的最新年度报告显示,太阳能光伏发电目前占澳大利亚全国发电量的11%。但是,随着大规模太阳能市场的发展,这些数字将会增长。

截止至2017年第一季度,澳大利亚全国光伏总装机容量达到6GW。其中户用住宅光伏市场,增幅明显。截止至2016年底,其全国共计安装160万户,占全国家庭总数的20%。储能及工商业系统也在不断增加。
2017年大型光伏项目大幅增加

在2017年,大规模的太阳能光伏发电在澳大利亚获得巨大的推动。总装机容量近1GW的20多个项目在当年融资到位。此外总量超过3.7GW的大规模太阳能发电项目也获得推动。这主要得益于澳大利亚可再生能源机构(ARENA)成功的竞争性融资以及清洁能源金融公司持续的2亿5千万澳元的大规模太阳能融资计划。


当地市场新规
2017年10月,澳大利亚总理特恩布尔政府正式宣布,将接受能源安全委员会(ESB)提出的新能源建议,进行“能源系统转型”,以确保家庭和企业获得负担得起的电力。
新的能源系统下,政府不再对某些电力来源给予特殊照顾,而是提供充分的竞争。煤炭、天然气、水电和生物质能将因其可调节性适度获得鼓励,而风、太阳能和水电这些被认定为是低排放的能源,将会停止补贴。
从表面上看,针对光伏及风电停止补贴并非是一个利好政策,但与此同时,也提到了(改革计划)将在不增加补贴、不改变税收或交易方式的情况下降低电价,使系统更可靠,鼓励正确的投资,减少排放。它是真正的技术中立的,为市场需要的任何技术——太阳能、风能、煤炭、天然气、电池或抽水蓄能——的投资展现了前景。
而随着光伏发电成本的持续降低,也将意味着太阳能已经成为比煤炭发电更便宜的能源,基于以上提及的政策调整,光伏将越发的体现其竞争力。
2017年11月28日,澳大利亚对当地电力市场规则进行了修改,将实际电力调度和财务结算的时间间隔调整为5分钟。此举将促进针对快速响应技术的投资,并为价格发现创造更加高效的市场。此外,这一重要举措还将有助于平衡可变电力供需关系,并推动电网集成更多可再生能源。
当地光伏项目投标需求解析
以下内容将针对当地大型地面电站投标的要求进行着重介绍,与此同时也将针对其提及的具体需求进行解析。
对于投标方的具体需求如下:
澳大利亚本土公司才有资格进行光伏项目的投标。即海外公司需要在澳设立分公司或与当地公司成立合资公司的形式,满足投标的基本需求。而考虑到当地的项目经验及履历问题,部分企业会采用第二种方式。
大型项目,其只提供土地红线,需投标人对此标的出具投资及设计方案。此部分可以解读为,当地政府对于投标人的设计能力提出了较高的要求,与此同时,同一标的并没有强制要求进行唯一一种新能源形式,即针对同一标的,在设计中可以加入光伏、风电及储能等综合性系统,从整体设计及投资回报对项目进行评定。
对于并网接入部分,需满足当地电力机构的要求。此部分对于众多海外投资人来讲是最为重要的部分,对投标方针对当地电网的了解程度提出较高要求。针对此项,建议投标人,寻求当地有丰富经验的设计公司或中高压电力接入产品提供方,继而可以更顺利的获得项目的接入设计审核。
具体项目建设,针对政府型项目,其会明确要求项目的并网时间;而对于商业型项目,投标人须提供建议的并网时间。此二者的区别主要在于,政府型的项目,如未如期并网,政府将给予较高额度的惩罚,而商业型项目相比之下并无强制要求。以上内容主要考虑到当地人力资源的短缺问题。

太阳能光热发电几种创新型储热技术

太阳能光热发电几种创新型储热技术
2017-04-23     轉載:  http://www.beaconergy.com/news/235.html

光热电站相比光伏电站的核心优势即在于光热电站可配置储热系统,与传统的火力发电厂一样,生产出电网友好型的可调度电力,满足连续的用电需求。目前,商业化光热发电项目的储能市场仍然以二元熔盐为工质的熔盐储能技术为主流,但其凝固点过高,易冻堵管道的缺陷也饱受诟病。

  2016年下半年接连发生的美国新月沙丘电站熔盐罐熔盐泄露事故以及西班牙Gemasolar光热电站熔盐热罐损毁事故,均造成了熔盐罐维修费用及售电收入方面的巨大损失,熔盐储热系统的安全性、可靠性再次受到行业关注。

  那么,有没有一种更先进的储热技术,可替代传统的熔盐储热技术进而成为主流?近年来,创新型储能技术层出不穷,尽管其大多停留在实验室或小型示范阶段,在理论层面已证明了其发展潜力,但其商业化价值仍尚待发掘。

1. 挪威Energy Nest公司新型固态混凝土储能技术
挪威科技公司Energy Nest与德国Heidelberg水泥公司(德国跨国建材公司,全球四大水泥生产商之一)展开合作,耗时五年半研发出一种全新的特殊混凝土HEATCRETE储能技术。HEATCRETE混凝土经国际权威独立第三方实验室测试,具有高比热容和高热导率的特性。与之前最为先进的混凝土储能系统相比,HEATCRETE系统的导热系数提高了70%,比热容值提高了15%,这对电站的热力性能和传热介质来说意义重大。该公司表示,其HEATCRETE混凝土储能系统能使整个光热电站的成本下降10%,针对熔盐储能系统则能节约60%的成本。HEATCRETE混凝土储能技术还能应用于风电和生产高温设备的工厂,但光热电站是该公司的主要目标市场。

2. 麻省理工学院新型液态金属储能技术
2014年9月,麻省理工学院的研究人员公开一种新型全液态金属电池储能系统。该液态金属储能系统内部没有使用任何固体材料制作,全部的储能元件也都采用融化的液体来制作。该系统造价低廉,且使用寿命较长。研究团队称该储能系统可使风能和太阳能这些可再生能源具备与传统能源相竞争的能力。

3. 瑞典查尔姆斯大学新型含碳化学液体高效储能
2017年3月,瑞典查尔姆斯理工大学研究者成功验证了以一种含碳化学液体作为介质,来高效存储太阳能的新型储能技术的可行性。通过这种化学液体,能够实现能量的自由传输以及随时释放。值得一提的是,该化学液体释放能量时,几乎可以实现能量的零损耗。研究小组将这个过程叫做“分子式太阳能储热系统”。目前,此项新技术已成功登上《能源与环境科学》(英国皇家化学院发行的学术期刊)的封面。
           
   

     

图:“分子式太阳能储热系统”模型

4.瑞典SaltX科技公司新型盐结晶储能技术
瑞典SaltX科技公司推出一种新型储能技术,主要利用盐晶体及其溶液在不同温度作用下,发生化学反应来进行储存与释放能量。可应用于光热发电、太阳能制冷和空调领域,该公司宣称可使能耗及储能成本降低约33%。该公司成立于2001年,一直致力于可再生能源的发展。凭借在欧洲绿色能源领域的快速发展,SaltX科技公司于2016年11月荣获BullhoundConnect大奖。目前,该公司已与美国通用电气、瑞美制造和阿法拉伐等公司建立合作关系,并提供新型储能解决方案。

5.美国新型热化学储能系统
2016年5月,美国俄勒冈州立大学和佛罗里达大学的科研人员合作推出一种新型热化学储能系统,可用于存储和释放太阳能。相比传统储热设备,美科研人员改进后的储能方案新增一种类似电池的热化学储能系统,其内部的转化过程是基于热能而非电流。在“充电”期间,碳酸锶在太阳热能作用下,分解成氧化锶和二氧化碳。当“放电”时,氧化锶和二氧化碳会发生合成,同时释放出储存的热量。该储能系统的材料易获得、不易燃且绿色环保,使用这些材料合成的化合物运行温度高达1200摄氏度,储热效率比现有储热系统高两倍。
              
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图:新型热化学储能系统原理图

6.澳大利亚Solastor高纯石墨储能技术
Solastor是澳大利亚一家研究太阳能储热发电技术的专业公司,其采用高纯石墨作为吸热和储热材料的塔式热发电技术一直领先于世界,其内置式石墨储能技术在十余个国家获得了知识产权的专利保护。该储能技术具有低塔、多塔、环保、安全、高容量储能和24小时热能损失低于5%,以及模块化组合等优点。
2014年,江苏润阳储能技术有限公司引进该公司内置式石墨工质塔式光热发电技术,建设我国首个石墨工质塔式光热发电示范项目。这种以石墨为介质,集吸热、储能、热交换为一体的“三合一”内置式先进技术,填补了我国光热发电领域的又一空白,对在我国开发太阳能塔式光热发电技术具有现实意义。
                
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图:位于江阴的我国首个石墨工质塔式光热发电示范项目

7.阿联酋Masdar理工学院沙子储热技术
2015年12月,阿联酋Masdar理工学院宣布,其研究人员已成功证明沙子可以储存太阳热能用于光热发电,存储温度可达1000℃。该研究项目名为“Sandstock”,目标是寻求开发一种可持续的低成本的依靠重力给料的太阳能接收器和存储系统,即使用沙子作为传热和储热介质。沙漠里的沙子是一种潜在的储热材料,其热稳定性和比热容在高温下的特性已经被研究证明。用廉价的沙子可以降低成本,同时,储热材料工作温度的增加意味着效率提升。
2016年7月,全球首个以沙子作为工质的塔式光热电站在意大利西西里岛正式启动。该项目的核心技术是一种基于沙子流化床的太阳能蒸汽发生技术,是首个在MW级规模对沙子储热工质进行示范的电站,能够吸收和储存太阳能并将热量转化为电力和其他热能使用。
                  
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图:位于意大利的全球首个沙子工质塔式光热电站

2018年1月8日 星期一

中华论坛: 谁把四万亿资产的中国平安交给了英国汇丰?

中华论坛: 谁把四万亿资产的中国平安交给了英国汇丰?   作者:月亮照着太阳


2012年10月12日星期五
  附件:中国平安十大股东列表

  资料来源:上海证券交易所

我们不知道究竟是英国人在指鹿为马,还是中国人利用英国人在指鹿为马,我们所能知道的,就是虽然有人迫于规则不得不公布十大股东名单,但是却在竭力掩盖中国平安已经被英国控股的事实。为什么?为什么一定要掩盖英国汇丰控股这样一个不包含任何价值判断的简单事实?究竟是要掩盖什么?是要掩盖腐败问题,还是要掩盖卖国问题,或是要掩盖其它什么问题?对此,我们不去深究也没有能力去深究,因为这是只有国家相关部门才有能力和有权利回答的问题。在此,我们只是指出一个事实,这个事实就是,作为深圳改革开放的两大金融成果也是最大经济成果——中国平安金融集团和深圳发展银行,四万亿资产全部落入了英国汇丰控股之下。根据中国平安向上海证券交易所提供的年报显示:截至到2012年6月30日,中国平安总资产2.65万亿,平安银行(原深圳发展银行)总资产1.49万亿,合计4.13万亿。相当于2011年深圳社会总产值1.1万亿的大约4倍,相当于2011年深圳财政收入4千亿的大约10倍。说30多年深圳改革开放的金融成果尽数落入英国汇丰手中,应不为过。前几天中国航母下水,为中国平安保驾护航的那些“改革禁卫军”,大肆叫嚣什么应该把建造航母的钱用来改善民生,以此来抹黑中国国防建设。可是,很少有人想到,按照建造一艘航母50亿人民币计算,4万亿可以建造800艘航母。然而,中国老百姓一滴血一滴汗干出来的这天文数字的资产,却糊里糊涂地被外资拿走了,作为国有资产主人的中国老百姓,甚至连提一下都是弥天大罪。在此,我们仿佛看到了全世界看待中国人的可怜目光。
  本来,金融卖国,金融抢劫,是中国老百姓早已麻木的民族之痛,是中国老百姓没兴趣也不愿意再冒险谈论的话语禁地,中国老百姓已经认了,已经自认倒霉了。这次,如果不是英国汇丰(中国平安)欺人太甚,宣布谁谈论中国平安的控股股东就封杀谁的嘴巴,就对谁实行舆论专政,我们也不想再提这4万亿资产的归属。现在我们不得不再次忍痛揭开这淋漓的鲜血,展示国有资产的流失之痛。
  抛开令人眼花缭乱的金融并购游戏,回到最简单的事实状态,这就是中国平安和平安银行这两大国有银行,国家是多少钱卖给外资的?也就是说,中国老百姓一滴血一滴汗创造出来的这4万亿资产,在出卖过程中有多少钱流入了国家财政?先后参与倒买倒卖这两大银行的外资公司有共三个,既英国汇丰、美国高盛、美国新桥,最终倒卖到了英国汇丰手中。英国汇丰的50亿人民币,是在中国平安香港上市之前投入的,一分钱也没有给国家,而是折成了11.71亿股份,折合每股折合4元多人民币,上市首日股价12元多港币,当天英国汇丰就获得了3倍以上的投资收益。等于是用鸡屁股里包含的一个鸡蛋的价钱购买了一只母鸡,并且买来后当天这只母鸡就下了三个鸡蛋。任何一个股民都知道,股份公司上市之前低价入股,完全是白白送钱的财务游戏。如果此事发生在美欧等西方发达国家,肯定会是轩然大波、警车呼啸。当然,在美欧等西方国家也不可能发生这种事情,因为西方国家国有资产转让,必须经过国会批准,绝不可能由几个本国人和外国人凑在一起一嘀咕,国有资产就变成了外国私人资产。而在当今中国,这一切全都发生在幕后,作为一般民众不仅无权干预,甚至探头探脑地议论几句,都有可能属于违法犯罪。还为此起了一个十分美丽的名字——改革开放,谁质疑国有资产的幕后转让,谁就是反对改革开放,就是在政治上格杀勿论的极左分子和文革余孽。
再说美国高盛和美国新桥对中国平安和平安银行(深圳发展银行)的倒买倒卖。2004年10月12日,新浪财经以大字标题报道《美国新桥收购深发展17.89%股权,深发展成为中国首家外资控股银行》(新桥控股深发展银行与汇丰控股中国平安完全相同,新浪称前者是控股银行,我们称呼后者,却被新浪作为谣言禁言,可见资本与权利相结合的强大力量),美国新桥集团出资12.35亿,以每股3.55元的价格买走了深圳发展银行,然后转手卖给了英国汇丰。美国高盛则以3500万美元相当于2.6亿人民币的价格买走了中国平安约10%的股份,然后同样转手卖给了英国汇丰,也就是现在英国汇丰持有中国平安12亿股份的一半。每股相当于多少钱,大家可以自己去计算,本人心脏不好,不敢计算,怕心脏承受不了如此重大损失的强烈刺激。
  上述买卖综合起来,国家财政只从如今已是4万亿资产的两大银行买卖中,得到了区区15亿人民币,其中美国新桥12.35亿,美国高盛2.6亿。英国汇丰的50亿人民币投在中国平安里,不是国家财政收入,随着中国平安变成汇丰控股公司,钱又流回到汇丰手中,与国家财政没有一毛钱的关系。如同把钱放在想要购买的房间抽屉里,随着房屋买到手,抽屉里的钱自然也就回到自己手中。这就是所谓的资本游戏,中国的滚滚财富包括子孙后代的滚滚财富,就是在这种资本游戏中流向西方的。他们把这种无异于公开抢劫的游戏,起了同样美丽的名字——民主法治。然而,剥掉这些人为制造的迷雾般的法律和并购外衣,一个简单事实,就是卖掉如今已是4万亿资产的两大国有和国有控股银行,国家只得到了区区15亿人民币。最近新华社等国内一大批媒体都在痛批中国爱国学者越来越不文明,开始脏话骂人,暂且不论是强奸妇女不文明,还是痛骂流氓不文明,面对眼下这种几乎是白送的所谓国有资产买卖,凡是有良知的中国人,绝大多数都会不由自主地来一句国骂,因为这太欺负中国老百姓了。
  尤其让人感到莫名悲愤的是,本来英国汇丰的10%加上高盛的约9.9%,仍然达不到中国平安的控股比例,国家财政持股比例仍然超过英国汇丰,为了让英国汇丰成为中国平安的第一大股东(包括第二大股东也是英国汇丰),作为国家大股东的深圳招商局,居然赶在上市之前把股份切成几块,以超低价分别卖给了几个私人,把国家大股东变成了许多私人小股东,拱手把中国平安的控股权送给了英国汇丰。而参与切割国家股份的那些国内并购者,几乎全都是莫名其妙的神秘人,其中位列第四大股东的并购者,居然是住在北京一个破旧四合院里的出租司机的女儿,年方20多岁的小姑娘刘方。此女因为持有当时超过50亿市值(现在市值超过150亿)的中国平安股份,被列入2004年胡润富豪排行榜。年轻姑娘的突然暴富引起舆论哗然,为掩人耳目,中国平安第四大股东便由刘方改为源信行投资公司,该公司仍然是刘方父女俩的公司。如果说这个年轻姑娘刘方还是神龙见首不见尾的话,那么其他几个私人股东则干脆是既不见首也不见尾,至今也不知道是何方神圣,国内外许多想一战成名的记者几乎找遍全中国,也查不到他们的真实身份,不仅查不到真实身份,甚至连个人虚假身份都无从知晓。
  中国平安就是这样在上市之前,匆匆忙忙把本来属于国家财政的巨额差价转让给了几个神个人,使几个神秘人瞬间获取了三四倍的投资收益,成为亿万富翁。其中,仅仅年轻姑娘刘方和宝华投资,就获取了近60亿的市场差价。如此明目张胆地侵吞国有资产,引起了中国社会巨大震动和愤慨,直到去年还有近百名著名学者联名发表公开信,要求中央立案调查中国平安的并购案。百名学者的公开信也如同现在中国平安一个诬告就禁言张宏良微博一样,同样是一个指令,整个中国没有任何一家媒体刊登这封公开信,只有乌有之乡网站顶着巨大压力刊登了这封公开信,结果大家都看到了,就是乌有之乡网站被关闭。可以说,当今中国,不仅没有任何一家公司能够像中国平安那样同时拥有银行、保险、证券、海外融资四块金融牌照,更没有任何一家公司能够像中国平安那样能够查禁学者言论,进行政治迫害。古往今来包括中国封建社会,近百名学者联名要求对一个公司立案调查,不仅没人理睬,甚至连公开信都发不出来,可以说是绝无仅有的罕见案例。由此即可看出,英国汇丰并购中国平安的幕后势力是何等之大!
  百名学者公开信并非是要求调查中国平安的股东,而是要求调查打着买卖旗号,把中国平安股份白白送给外资和私人的幕后操纵者。包括年轻姑娘刘方在内的那些神秘股东,只不过是侵吞4万亿国有资产这场饕餮盛宴中的一个刀叉或者一个棋子,在善恶博弈的人生旅途中,他们同样是可怜的无辜的。年轻姑娘刘方在曝光后就从公众视野中消失了,其他诸如第五大股东宝华的主人姓甚名谁,更是无人知晓,即便他们永远消失,也不会有人注意,可见他们不过只是一个棋子。其实,不仅他们是棋子,侵吞巨额国有资产的整个过程中,绝大多数参与者都是棋子。美国高盛和美国新桥两大集团同样是棋子,他们的主要任务就是通过倒买倒卖中国平安股份,为英国汇丰在法律上漂白资产,根据专门为并购国有资产而制订的《物权法》规定,无论对方财产是偷是抢怎么来的,只要以合法手段从对方手里买来,就是合法资产。美国高盛和美国新桥倒买倒卖的作用,就是使中国平安和平安银行(深圳发展银行),变成了英国汇丰的合法资产,所以他们是英国汇丰控股的棋子。美国高盛在中国市场上已经多次充当过为他人漂白资产的这种棋子。至于英国汇丰是不是也是有人幕后侵吞4万亿国有资产的一个棋子,就目前状况来看,这种可能性并不排除。但无论如何,这些资产的处置已经与中国人无缘,股份公司是一股一票,而不是一人一票,无论管理层有多少中国人都无关紧要,决定股份公司资产处置的,是大股东而不是一般股民,英国汇丰(中国平安)所谓中国股民占60%以上、仍然是中国公司的说法,完全是玩文字游戏欺骗中国老百姓。今后它唯一与中国老百姓有关的,就是吸纳中国老百姓的保费和储蓄,吸引中国老百姓继续在股市里投入自己的血汗钱,以满足他们增发和配股等大规模圈钱的需要。写到此处,让人不由自主地想起了猪圈里的肥猪。或许有人会说,两大公司仍然在中国,随时可以收回资产。这是根本不了解现代经济的虚妄之谈。世界经济的一体化、社会财富的虚拟化和资金流动的网络化,决定了只要拥有控股权,可以随时随地把财产调往世界任何一个地方,给所在国留下的,将完全有可能只是一个法律上的公司空壳和办公桌抽屉里的一堆公章。正是基于这一点,此前我们就一直强调,对于现代经济而言,除了爱国主义之外,没有任何可以防止资产流失的防火墙。这就是俄罗斯总统普京声称“未来俄罗斯崛起的唯一基础就是爱国主义”的根本原因,就是美国国会今年出台《爱国法案》以及一系列配套法案的根本原因,就是美国国会高度重视和坚决阻挠中国华为公司和中兴公司并购美国公司的根本原因。俄罗斯石油巨头霍多尔科夫斯基,仅仅是想要引进英国资本合作开发俄罗斯石油资源,就被普京毫不犹豫地投入监狱,即使西方国家一片谩骂也决不动摇,普京这样做的目的,就是怕这个口子一开,整个国家资源就会像中国金融资产这样,源源不断地流向西方国家,把俄罗斯的经济血液彻底抽干。而在当今中国,面对数万亿国有资产的流失,作为一个中国人,不仅没有权利抗议或者质疑,甚至仅仅重复了一句外资控股中国银行这个银行自己公开的信息,就遭到禁言的政治迫害。
  可以说,去年以来,美欧俄罗斯等国家突然出台一系列爱国法案,开始对社会各个领域特别是经济领域进行安全控制,不能不说与中国平安这类巨额资产落入外资之手有关,如果不是震惊于中国巨大的资产损失,美欧俄罗斯等西方国家不可能突然搞起了一系列爱国法案。俄罗斯出台法律,严禁外资进入国家能源领域,已经进入的必须限期退出;所有与外资合作包括有外资赞助的社会团体,都必须每年向政府重新登记;限制俄罗斯公民在国外开设财产账户;严禁公务员拥有外籍配偶等。美国国会最近更是明确禁止中国华为公司和中兴公司并购美国企业,要求美国政府不准采购中国两家公司的产品,美国企业不得与两家公司合作。显然,西方国家看到了深圳30年改革开放的两大经济成果——中国平安和平安银行的4万亿资产,是怎么被英国汇丰以极低代价控股的,他们担心类似悲剧会在本国发生,于是出台了限制外资并购的一系列法律法规。只是美欧俄罗斯等西方国家密集出台的一系列法案,特别是俄罗斯对勾结外资侵吞本国资产的资本寡头的处罚,同时也对中国产生了巨大负面影响,它在提醒中国的汉奸力量,要想避免国家追究,让子女亲属能够像李鸿章后代那样逍遥自在,就必须毁掉这个国家,至少要实现改朝换代,这就是当今中国灾难的根源所在。
  几天来,为英国汇丰低价控股中国平安辩护的那些“民主斗士”,一直喋喋不休地叫嚣什么英国汇丰控股的4万亿资产中绝大部分都是负债,并不是所有者权益,以此来证明国有资产流失数量并不很大。然而,最让人担心焦虑的恰恰是这一点。英国汇丰(中国平安)4万亿资产中绝大部分都是中国老百姓缴纳的保费和储蓄存款,这些保费和存款都是中国老百姓的活命钱,一旦也像国有控股银行变成外资控股银行一样,把这数万亿保费和储蓄洗劫而去,如同九十年代俄罗斯金融洗劫那样把所有老百姓的储蓄洗劫一空,中国老百姓将死无葬身之地。对于现代经济而言,没有什么比金融洗劫的灾难更加可怕了,九十年代俄罗斯的金融打洗劫,甚至把七八十岁老人的养老金都洗劫得干干净净,绝大多数俄罗斯居民的储蓄账户都变得空空如也。正是那场空前惨烈的金融洗劫,促使俄罗斯老百姓下决心把强人普京变成实际上的终身总统,百万俄罗斯青年喊出了“用拳头保卫俄罗斯”的爱国主义口号,自发地形成了人人打“汉奸”的反“汉奸”文化,由此把俄罗斯推上了强国之路。只是,普京能够带领俄罗斯走出那场金融洗劫的灾难,并非完全是依靠人人喊打的“反汉奸文化”,而主要是依靠俄罗斯广袤的自然资源,依靠国际市场上石油天然气以及各种矿产资源涨价的收入,逐步摆脱劫难恢复了经济发展。而对于当今中国来说,一旦发生俄罗斯那种金融洗劫,已经濒临枯竭的资源和濒临崩溃的环境,决定了中国绝没有俄罗斯走出劫难的那种历史幸运,除了极少数资产转移者能够在大洋彼岸安享天年之外,绝大多数老百姓将陷入灾难深渊。
  特别是与其他国家相比,当今中国金融机构没有任何内外约束,这是中国老百姓最致命的灾难根源。内部没有任何道德约束,本来,侵吞国有资产的公司都是相当低调的公司,可是英国汇丰(中国平安)仅仅因为别人说了一句自己是外资公司,就动用权利查禁了对方的微博,趾高气扬到了匪夷所思的地步;外部没有社会力量约束,西方国家国有资产的转让需要经过国会批准,甚至连大型私人公司资产向国外转让,都要受到社会舆论约束以及由此形成的国家约束,法国政府禁止美国并购法国的鲜橙汁公司和达能公司,两家公司都是私人公司,禁止理由并非是涉及垄断,而是国家经济安全和国民生活安全,最近美国禁止中国华为公司和中兴公司兼并的美国公司,同样是私人公司,理由也同样是国家安全和国民安全。而在当今中国,民众不仅没有权利阻挡外资并购中国资产,甚至连议论一下都会遭到迫害,并且这种迫害并非是完全来自外资,而是来自于中国官方,至少是来自于某些政府官员。比如现在,我们说中国平安变成外资公司,只不过是陈述一个简单事实,并且是不包含任何价值判断的简单事实,可是中国平安一句话,就能查禁我们发言的微博,是不折不扣的法西斯专政。在如此情况下,中国老百姓的资产安全又将如何保障?一旦中国发生俄罗斯那样的金融洗劫,中国老百姓将有何指望?如果说,中国老百姓连说一句中国公司变成英国公司都会遭到无情打压的话,一旦真的遭受到外资发动的金融洗劫,还能指望现在的打压者能够维护中国老百姓的利益?揪心啊,我的中国同胞们!
  不知道此时应该用绝望来形容中国人,还是应该用悲愤来形容中国人更加准确,总之当今中国人陷入了十分可怜的可怕状态,最让人感到可怕的地方,还不在于自己辛辛苦苦创造的国有资产变成了外国资产,而在于拿走这些资产的人不仅没有任何遮掩,反倒在老百姓面前趾高气扬。而我们这些宪法规定的国有资产的主人,不仅没有任何权利决定国有资产的流向,甚至连感叹一句国有资产的流失,都要遭受到无情打击,请问,天理何在!正义何在!
  我们中国人还是人吗?!
  坚决抗议外资侵吞中国资产、迫害中国公民的野蛮行径!
  

  截至日期:2012-06-30 十大股东情况 股东总户数:268619 户均流通股:17819[转载]【中华论坛】谁把四万亿资产的中国平安交给了英国汇丰?

2018年1月6日 星期六

裝修必備!Walabot手機能透視牆

博主補充: 這些設備可以在小區內共享

商户: https://walabot.com


轉載自:  http://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/lifestyle/20170530/bkn-20170530191154370-0530_00982_001.html



裝修時最怕師傅鑽爛、整爆牆內的水管、電線,以往裝修師傅就會靠金屬探測器預測牆內水管、電線位置,日後用Walabot就得!由以色列公司設計的Walabot,其實係3D影像感應器,只須將連接手機,再配合專用App就可以使用。用家只須將感應器連同手機掃過牆身,就可以感應金屬喉管、塑膠喉管、電線、釘子等物件的位置、形態及深度,並內置熱能感應,加上手機畫面會同步顯示,預測喉管位置就更加輕鬆。Walabot暫時只支援Andriod裝置,iPhone用家暫時用唔到。


亨利.福特美國國家創新專輯電視片集介紹這個商品:    https://www.thehenryford.org/explore/innovation-nation/episodes/green-screen-animals/

香港無線 Pearl 臺27.12.2017星期三晚八時播放

色盲眼鏡戴上即見顏色

亨利.福特美國國家創新專輯電視片集介紹這個商品:  
香港無線 Pearl 臺逢星期三晚八時播放, 重播一個星期: 4-10.1.2018 http://programme.tvb.com/lifestyle/innovationnationv 


博主建議: 電視片中女主持人自以為無色盲但一戴上眼鏡即能驚嘆一片楓葉的多彩絢麗(見下圖一), 但是否百分百改善, 抑或只有不同程度改善, 視乎個別情况而定, 旁人是無從得知.  建議專業人仕, 消費者組織多發表試用結果以供参考.  確保試戴 60天滿意才付款, 否則購買色盲眼鏡者責任自負.



博主翻譯:  色盲極為普遍.  12名男士即有一人享受不到夕陽西下漫天華彩(見下圖二). 200名女人則有一人活在黑白世界.  小學老師用顏色教具, 無奈色盲學生看不到, 造成困擾與學習緩慢不前. 色弱人仕並非活在黑白世界只是程度上介乎彩色與黑白之間. 眼鏡一戴告別煩惱, 但是否人人如此則無從得知, 博主也未戴過這些眼鏡.

Color blindness affects millions of people worldwide. It affects 1 in 12 men and 1 in 200 women. The condition ranges from a variety of classes, red-green color blindness being the most common.

Most people who suffer from color blindness are not blind to color, but have a reduced ability to see them. Color blindness is also called Color Vision Deficiency (CVD)  Source: enchroma 

商户網址:  http://enchroma.com  


圖一:
                            
           Source: https://www.thehenryford.org/explore/innovation-nation/episodes/farmbot/


圖二:


                             Source: http://sucai.redocn.com/tupian/213997.html